- (May 2006)
Venezuela vs Brazil.
The rhetoric of Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's Mussolini, is directed against the
USA, but of course it has no effect on the USA's economic or military supremacy.
On the other hand, it seems to have hurt the chances of Brazil becoming a
regional superpower. Just a few months ago Brazil was a candidate to become
a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council with veto power.
Now it is hardly mentioned as a rising power. More than anything else, it has
been Chavez's rhetoric and actions that have curtailed the power of Brazil.
When Chavez's ally in Bolivia, Morales, decided to punish foreign corporations,
the USA did not even noticed, but Brazil was badly hurt. The president of
Brazil, Lula, was powerless to assert Brazil's rights.
When Chavez launched his campaign against free trade, he certainly did not
hurt the USA, for which Latin American trade is a drop in the ocean, but it
did hurt Brazil, that stood to benefit from than any other country.
Given that Brazil itself was trying to distance itself from the USA, Brazil's
president suddenly found himself isolated. Unlike Chile, Peru, Colombia and
Mexico that signed
deals with the USA and ignored Chavez (largely unpopular in both countries),
Brazil found itself in the unpleasant situation of having spearheaded an
independent Latin American movement and having it dertailed by a Latin American
country (Venezuela). Brazil's dream of Latin American unity under its aegis
has been shattered by one of the countries that were supposed to help the dream
come true. Ironically, it is the USA that would greatly welcome Brazil's dream.
Too bad that Lula originally saw (and depicted) the USA as the enemy, not
as the strategic partner.
That is how dangerous demagogy can be.
TM, ®, Copyright © 2005 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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- (June 2003)
Lula's miracle.
When, in october 2002, Luiz Inacio Lula, a populist candidate who ran against
corruption and social injustice, was elected president of Brazil, it was
widely feared that he would become another Alan Garcia or Chavez: in an
inept effort to remedy the evils of Latin societies, populist leaders have,
time and again, crippled the economy and caused more damage than the
mismanagement of the corrupt leaders they ousted.
Lula, instead, turned out to be the right man for the right job.
He might become the first democratically-elected leader to devise a Latin
way to capitalism (Pinochet is the only precedent, but not a very democratic
one). His secret so far has been pragmatism: it would be difficult even for
his supporters to categorize his ideology. He is opposed to unbridled
capitalism, but he is not a socialist. He favors unions, but opposes anarchy.
Unfortunately, Lula's main challenge was not and is not the economy (although
that is the one challenge that the rest of the world cares for). Lula's main
challenge is the increasing danger posed by crime to ordinary people.
Larger and larger sectors of Brazil's main cities are controlled by gangs or
just by nobody. Lawlessness is so pervasive that drug lords are beginning
to create Colombia-style enclaves in the country.
33% of Brazilians live below the poverty line. This is a huge reservoir of
manpower for anyone who wants to start a private army.
TM, ®, Copyright © 2005 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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