- (november 2010)
India on the Rise.
The Asian trip of USA president Barack Obama might be the most significant
event in international politics of the year. What he did was more than just
shake a few hands: it was a deliberate strike at China's emergent power,
and it was delivered along multiple dimensions.
The main dimension is the new strategic alliance between the USA and India.
It was inevitable. In fact, it started under a Republican president, George
W Bush, and it is now escalating under a Democratic president, Barack Obama.
These are the two largest democracies and capitalist systems in the world,
and they almost never compete. They are both former British colonies and
therefore share that Anglosaxon background. They are both melting pots.
Now they have one more thing in common: they both distrust the most powerful
of all emerging countries, China. India feels the power of China because China
has been building ports for Pakistan, Burma, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Basically, China is surrounded by USA military bases (Mongolia, South Korea,
Japan, Taiwan, Pacific islands, Australia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kyrgizstan)
but India is being surrounded by Chinese trading posts.
The USA does not and cannot keep extending its military power. In fact, the
USA is more likely to withdraw than to expand in Asia. It does not have the
money nor does it have domestic public support. Basically, the USA temporarily
filled the gap left by the collapse of the British Empire, that used to
"patrol" Central Asia, the Indian subcontinent and the Chinese sea. That
gap will require a different guardian when the USA withdraws.
It is inevitable that the USA will eventually recognize India as the only
power in the region that can be trusted to replace the British Empire.
It is ironic that the largest of Britain's colonies is now poised to become
the replacement for the British Empire in Asia, now that Britain is rapidly
becoming an irrelevant province of Europe.
Obama's commitment to Afghanistan turns out to be a perfect match for India's
regional interests. For the USA, Afghanistan is just the place from which Osama
bin Laden waged a war against the USA, but for India it is part of the
strategy to contain its main enemy, Pakistan.
At the same time,
Obama's commitment to defend South Korea, Japan and Taiwan turns out to be
a perfect match for India's global interests. For the USA these are just
old friends that it pledged to defend during the Cold War, but for India
these are the trading partners of the future, and it doesn't want them to
become de facto colonies of its main trading rival, China.
Obama also visited Indonesia, which is the largest Muslim country in the world.
It also happens to be the largest Muslim democracy in the world. Having been
founded by Muslim traders and not by Muslim warriors. It also happens to be
a melting pot, just like the USA and India. Obama was the natural messenger
because he grew up in Indonesia, but that is another case in which an alliance
with the USA against China was almost inevitable. The cheap Chinese goods
are hurting many of the poorer countries, and Indonesia in particular.
The last thing that Indonesia wants is an Asia completely dominated by the
Chinese economy.
Mainland China made the big mistake of scaring its neighbors by de facto
occupying the islands that Japan claims and by printing a map that shows
the regional seas as being part of China's empire. Obama's trip can now be
viewed as the reaction to that action. Not only does the whole of Asia want
the USA to stay in the region, but now the USA has also strengthened its
alliance with India and beginning a similar process with Indonesia.
See also: India vs China: a story of waking-up giants
TM, ®, Copyright © 2009 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
Back to the world news | Top of this page
- (october 2010)
India and Africa.
While all eyes are on China investing in Africa to take advantage of the
natural resources that its expanding economy desperately needs, few observers
have noticed a similar trend by India. In fact, it is India, not China, that
was very similar to today's sub-Saharan Africa. Muslim Africa (basically
the Sahara region and the southern Mediterranean) share the same instability
issues of the rest of the Islamic world, but non-Muslim Africa (south of the
Sahara) is becoming increasingly stable and democratic. There is only one
war left (in Congo) and even the one major dictatorship left (in Zimbabwe)
is showing signs of coming to compromises. There have been several peaceful
transitions of power, and each one has introduced more democratic reforms.
Equally important is the fact that what used to be failed countries (Angola,
Namibia, Mozambique) have adopted liberal economic policies that have yielded
economic booms after decades of socialist-inspired experiments. Unlike China,
that is still a one-party system with strict control of its capitalist
society, African countries offer in theory a more competitive environment.
The similarities with India extend to the negative factors:
they are also plagued with corruption and nepotism.
It might also help that there are significant Indian minorities in all the
former British colonies, and the Indians tend to be more affluent than the
Blacks.
No surprise then that billionaire Ravi Ruia has purchased mines, refineries
and factories in several African countries, and that billionaire Sunil Mittal
purchased mobile phone operations in 15 countries. In 2008 Indian companies
invested more than $3billion in non-Muslim Africa.
TM, ®, Copyright © 2009 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
Back to the world news | Top of this page
- Articles on India before 2010
|