- (October 2006)
An open letter to Iran's president Ahmadinejad.
Dear President,
Muslim armies are occupying the homelands of four great religions.
Muslims are occupying the homeland of Christianity, from Betlehem to Jerusalem,
that is now under the rule of a Palestinian "state" (run by your allies of
Hamas) that no Islamic empire or
kingdom in history ever recognized, an invention of the Western colonial powers.
Muslims are occupying the homeland of Judaism, namely ancient Jewish villages
such as Jericho, that are now under control by the same fictitious state.
Muslims are occupying the homeland of Induism, namely the Indus Valley that is
now part of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
Muslims like you are occupying the homeland of Mazdaism (Zoroastrianism), Iran,
an ancient and glorious civilization that was destroyed by the invasion of
the barbarians from the Arabian peninsula.
In these regions Christians, Jews, Indus and Zoroastrians have been
exterminated and/or expelled by Muslims.
There are very few non-Muslims left in the regions that Muslims have invaded.
Dear President,
Islam is a religion that was founded on blood. Mohammed is the only founder
of a major religion who personally killed innocents. His immediate followers,
the caliphs, killed millions of people and killed even each other in order
to force Islam on a large region of the world, from Morocco to Indonesia.
Dear President,
Mecca was a model of religious tolerance before Mohammed: all religions of
the world were worshipped in Mecca. Mohammed destroyed all the "idols" that
he did not like, and turned Mecca into the symbol of religious intolerance.
Mohammed invented religious war, that had never existed before.
Islam was violent from the first day. After the demise of Nazism and
Communism, Islam has remained the most violent ideology
that terrorizes the world today. Some Muslims routinely threaten to kill anybody
who dares disagree with them, and then claim that this is done in the name
of defending the reputation of Islam as a peaceful religion.
The other Muslims rarely condemn this "extremists" and regimes like yours
even encourage them. So we have to assume that all Muslims agree with the
"extremists".
Islam is the only religion in the world that prescribes death for anyone who
converts to another religion.
Dear President,
The world is at peace, except for the Islamic world.
For the first time in the history of the world the world powers are at peace.
There are no wars in Europe, for the first time in 1,500 years.
There is no war between the USA, Russia, China, India, Japan, Europe: the
powers are at peace for the first time since human civilization exists.
All the wars in Latin America, Asia and black Africa have come to end or
are coming to an end.
There is only one region of the world where war is rampant: the region
occupied by Islam.
Today we have only one enemy of peace: Islam. Wherever there are Muslims,
there is war, from Spain to the Philippines, from Russia to Somalia.
There is no community of Muslims that is at peace with its neighbors.
Dear President,
Islam has made the people ruled by it violent, poor, slaves and ignorant.
There has been no worse disease that has hurt the people of the Islamic
countries than their own religion.
Dear President,
The Quran is largely a manual of war that encourages hatred among people.
Muslims hate each other to an extent that has been rarely matched in the
history of the other nations of the world. And they hate non-Muslims in a
way that only Christianity has ever done (in its darkest days).
Dear President,
We ask for your help in establishing peace on the world. This can be achieved
by fighting Islam wherever it has taken hold.
We ask for your help in restoring
Mecca as it was in the time before Mohammed: a model of religious tolerance,
where all religions can be worshipped.
We ask for your help in restoring Iran as the glorious civilization that
it was in the time before Mohammed.
We ask for your help in liberating the holy lands of the Hindus, Christians and
Jews from the Muslim occupation.
We ask for your help in fighting against monotheism, that today is the cause
of most evils in the world.
Dear President,
We ask you to tell the world the truth: that Mohammed was not a prophet and
that the Quran is not a divine book.
You will be remembered as the man who destroyed the ideology of hatred and
finally brought peace to the entire planet.
Yours,
The human race
TM, ®, Copyright © 2005 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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- (May 2006)
Who is bluffing.
Several analysts still believe that Iran is bluffing, despite the fact
that it keeps a defiant attitude towards the USA, Europe and the United
Nations. In fact, it increases the provocation every month.
Wishful thinkers claim that Iran has nothing to gain from building
a nuclear weapon: it would simply force its neighbors to go nuclear too.
But Iran knows that a nuclear arms race in the most troublesome region
of the world is precisely what the USA does not want. It is highly unlikely
that the USA would help in any fashion countries such as Saudi Arabia or
Iraq or even Turkey to get their own nuclear weapon.
Wishful thinkers suspect that Israel is ready to strike and that it is
just a matter of months before it loses its patience with the failed
international pressures. But Iran knows that a preemptive strike by
Israel or the USA would simply unite the Iranian people around its regime.
Iran knows that the USA does not want this. The USA has been counting on
people rebelling against the regime. The last thing the USA wants is a
military confrontation that would unite the Iranians instead of dividing them.
Pessimists fear that Iran would retaliate against sanctions by supporting
terrorism against Western targets. If Al Qaeda is indeed blowing up shiites
in Iraq, could shiite Iran really ally with it? Very unlikely.
When the USA invaded Iraq, the perception was that the USA was surrounding
Iran, and the Iranian regime was bound to collapse.
Instead, three years later,
Iran is sitting comfortably between two USA disasters: Afghanistan and Iraq.
Precisely because the USA is losing in both countries, Iran knows that the
USA does not have the capability or, for that matter, the will to start a third
front in the region (and a third front that looks much harder than the previous
two). There is literally nothing the USA can do militarily without getting
itself into even bigger trouble.
Iran has virtually only one vulnerable spots: the Kurds.
Iran, like Iraq, has a Kurdish minority that wants independence.
The USA has refrained from sponsoring their liberation war for fear of
alienating Turkey (that shares the same problem).
But that would be an obvious way to destabilize Iran.
Barring that dramatic change in USA policy, the truth is that very little
is likely to change: Iran will pursue its nuclear program and the rest of
the world will get very angry, but doesn't seem to have a way to stop it,
just like it couldn't stop Pakistan and India.
Iran itself is unlikely to listen to any talk of moderation.
Iran is neither stupid not suicidal. Iran knows that every crisis involving
itself pushes the price of oil up, which means that Iran makes more money,
which means that Iran becomes more influential worldwide, while USA voters
become angrier and angrier at Bush because gasoline prices go up. Since the
USA is the main customer of Iran's main resource, Iran knows that it is in
a win-win situation. The USA is hanging itself with its own rope (oil).
Iran is not suicidal. The USA is.
TM, ®, Copyright © 2005 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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- (January 2006)
Iran vs Europe.
The three (self-appointed) western European powers (Germany, France and Britain)
have decided to take action against Iran, after Iran refused to stop its nuclear
program. Iran is still claiming that its nuclear program is only for peaceful
purposes, but almost everybody (from its Arab neighbors to the USA) believes
that Iran wants to become a nuclear power.
Europe is unusually sensitive to this issue. Most Europeans were perfectly
happy to have dictators like Qaddafi, Saddam and Assad in power, and
were very upset when George W Bush embarked on a mission to remove or
neutralize them. Now they seem eager to take the initiative in neutralizing
Iran. There is certainly a feeling that Europe is falling behind the USA
on the international scene, and a country like France, that lost badly in
Iraq, certainly wants to join the winners now.
But there is more than hurt pride.
History teaches us that the country with the best weapons, the most resources
and the largest population ends up, sooner or later, ruling its region.
So far it has been inevitable. It turns out that Iran has the largest
population and the largest oil reserves in the region stretching from
Afghanistan to Portugal. As long as its army is vastly inferior to the
armies of its Middle Eastern and European neighbords, Iran cannot truly claim
to be a regional superpower. But Iran would certainly become a regional
superpower if it had the people, the resources and the weapons.
There are only three ways that Europe can defend its supremacy in the region:
exterminate the people (a trick that worked wonders in ancient times, but has
become unpopular), steal the resources (another old trick that worked wonders
in colonial times) or disarm the regime. Given the first two are no longer
feasible, there is only one left: disarm the regime. Thus the frenzy and fury
with which the Europeans are trying to stop Iran from going nuclear.
The Europeans are fighting for their own survival as powers.
Unfortunately, Iran is unlikely to accept any kind of negotiation.
The fact that it refuses to bargain is that... it has no intention of
bargaining. Here lies the big difference between Iran and North Korea.
As mad as its dictator Kim Jong Il might be, there is no way that North Korea
can dream of becoming a regional superpower: it is surrounded by China,
Russia and Japan. North Korea cannot have any ambition of influencing China,
Russia or Japan. It can only bargain with them, and try to get the best
bargain. Iran is different: it is surrounded by weak states, with either
smaller populations, fewer resources or weaker arms or all three. The
temptation to harbor imperial ambitions must be strong.
Historically, it did use to have its own empire on the
region (more than once). Since Khomeini's revolution, Iran has also come
to see itself as a world missionary, who goal is to export the Islamic
revolution (so far it failed). Thus the situation is completely different: North
Korea can only bargain, whereas Iran can and does have imperial dreams.
Far from being mere Mussolinis in search of an elusive dream of empire,
the Iranian regime is also motivated by very practical reasons. First of all,
the countries that today want a weak Iran are the countries that supported
a coup in 1953 against the Iranian regime, and then installed a puppet
dictator who ruled for two decades. Thus Iran knows that the USA and the UK
are capable of interfering into its affairs. Second, Iran was indeed invaded
by one of its neighbors (Saddam Hussein's Iraq), and, again, with the
complicity of the western powers.
Third, two of its neighbors (Pakistan and Israel) have become nuclear powers
(and have never been punished by anyone).
Last but not least, it is now almost completely surrounded by the USA:
the USA or its allies are in power in Afghanistan, in Kuwait, in Iraq, in
Georgia, in Armenia and in Turkey.
The Iranian regime is entitled to be worried. Even a democratic Iran would
probably feel that it needs to defend itself with a better military option
that it has today (today it basically only has people to counter a foreign
attack).
Thus this crisis is unlikely to go away any time soon. The Europeans are
likely to do anything they can to weaken a prospective superpower, and
Iran is likely to do anything it can to get its nuclear weapon.
Israel might solve the problem in the fastest way. After all, Iran's president
just gave it a good excuse to attack first.
See What side is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on?
TM, ®, Copyright © 2005 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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