- (march 2008)
Making sense of Syria.
Syria is often depicted as a vassal of Iran in the great mess of Middle-eastern
geopolitics. That is a clear misconception.
The Defense Department's quarterly report on progress in Iraq, released in march
2008, suggested that about 90% of foreign fighters enter Iraq via Syria.
That might be upsetting to the USA (and certainly to Iraq) but it must be even
more upsetting to anyone who supports the Shiites, because the foreign fighters
are Sunnis, mostly interested in fighting the Shiite-dominated government
of Iraq and their protector, the USA. Iran is the only Shiite power in the
world, and the very same document accuses Iran of supporting the Shiite militias
that have harassed the Sunni communities and are therefore co-responsible for
the escalation of the civil war. Any objective observer would conclude that
Syria and Iran are vying for control of Iraq through proxy armies: the foreign
fighters for Syria and the Shiite militias for Iran. That is a far cry from
considering them allies, never mind one the vassal of the other.
In fact, the only thing that Syria and Iran agreed upon is the need for the
USA to leave Iraq. They do not agree on what should happen next. Iran is
a firm believer in democracy (that would keep the Shiites in power), whereas
Syria is a firm believer in destabilizing the democratically-elected government
in order to increase the power of the Sunni minority.
The reason that Syria and Iran are often viewed as allies is that they
cooperate opportunistically in supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon. But even
there their long-term intentions are different. Iran supports Hezbollah not
only because Hezbollah fights Israel, but because Hezbollah is a Shiite
movement. It is in fact the only Shiite movement in recent memory that has
managed to stage an uprising and establish itself as a political force
outside of Iran (and now Iraq). Syria, instead, is simply at war with Israel.
Syria is one of the countries that never signed a peace treaty with Israel,
claiming that Israel still occupies part of its territory. Therefore Syria
helps just about anyone who fights Israel, from Hamas to Hezbollah.
It would help even the Catholic Inquisition is the Inquisition still existed
(the Inquisition mainly persecuted Jews).
Syria is therefore to channel Iranian weapons to Hezbollah. But this does not
mean that Syria and Iran are true allies. One wonders what would happen if
Israel signed a peace treaty with Iran: would Syria thank Iran for its
military help throughout all these years, or would Syria suddenly turn against
Iran as a threat to its regional power?
One also wonders what Syria would do if Iran were attacked by the USA:
would it really risk annihilation to defend its Shiite "friend"?
It is interesting that both Syria and Iran pursued (and may still be pursuing)
nuclear weapons, but they don't seem to cooperated. They look more like
competitors than partners. Syria had secretely acquired nuclear technology
from North Korea (and Israel destroyed it last year). Iran acquired it more
or less legally from Russia and some Western countries, after initial help
from Pakistan. Their routes were different and still are. There is no evidence
that they exchanged know-how of any kind.
Politics in the Middle East is mostly a game of opportunistic moves under the
pretense of this or that ideology or religion.
Change the equation, and they will switch sides.
TM, ®, Copyright © 2007 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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