Trump's business card:
- (april 2017)
"Vladimir" Trump bombs Syria.
All these discussions are useless until Vladimir Trump releases his tax returns,
but, for what it's worth...
(Obama is indeed co-responsible for the Syrian genocide, but that's another story altogether).
- It doesn't change anything: Assad and Russia are still winning, and
24 hours later Assad's planes left from the exact same base to bomb the
exact same city (See this article or any other article).
- This sudden and isolated bombing raid is the typical distraction created by a president who is haunted by a scandal: bomb somebody and the media will stop talking about your scandal (e.g. Clinton bombed Serbia at the peak of the Lewinski scandal).
- Trump now has a lot less power than he thought he would have: the Republican party's establishment is getting what it wants, in particular the hawks like John McCain (who are basically telling Trump "you do what i tell you to do or i go on with the Russia inquest") (and, like me, they have very little doubt of what the Russian inquest will unearth).
- By continuously surprising the public and flip-flopping on just about every issue, Trump is continuing the strategy that he used during the presidential campaign: the nation cannot focus on one discussion because the following day he has candidly contradicted himself and started another discussion.
- Assad was obviously very confident that the USA would not strike. I wonder why he felt so confident that the USA would not object to his use of chemical weapons (weapons that he was not even supposed to have after the deal brokered by Russia but whose use he didn't even try to hide).
- Putin has not really lost much from this bombing. Strategically speaking, the Syrian civil war also and perhaps mainly serves Putin's interests in Europe, not only in the Middle East: Putin has weaponized the millions of Syrian refugees, all of them temporarily hosted in allies of the USA. The bigger the conflict in Syria, the more refugees who destabilize US allies.
- Trump, who easily escoriates everybody, from journalists to judges, not to
mention his own political rivals, has never stated plainly that Putin is a bad man, let alone a killer; not even in this case. Trump accused Assad, but not Putin, of committing an atrocity, as if Putin had nothing to do with the fact that Assad keeps bombing his own people using Russian planes and Russian rockets.
If Trump just released his tax returns, we would know the truth without any need for all these speculations. But of course there's a reason if he refuses to do so.
See also my lengthy investigation: What's in "Vladimir" Trump's tax returns?
P.S.: Where we stand with the Trump-Russia investigation (if you believe the testimony under oath of the director of the FBI):
- The FBI discovered evidence that Putin ordered Russian hackers to hack the computers of the Democratic Party
with the specific intent of damaging Trump's opponent, Hillary Clinton.
- The FBI discovered evidence that Putin ordered Russian operatives to tweet thousands of fake news and to post on facebook thousands of fake news for a period of months
with the specific intent of defaming Trump's opponent, Hillary Clinton.
- The FBI discovered evidence that Putin ordered Russian hackers to hack the voting machines (but this failed) in order to alter the votes in Trump's favor.
- Chris Steele (top British spy) released a dossier in which he claims that Trump and Russia cooperated to hijack the US elections. Trump initially denied everything, as usual. One after the other of Steele's statements are being proven true, and Trump's denials proven false (as usual). See for example this article
- Britain provided the USA with intercepted communications between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives
- The Israeli magazine Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Israeli intelligence officials were concerned about sharing sensitive information with the Trump administration because they feared that the Trump administration would pass them on to Russia (which is an ally of Iran and Hezbollah, two arch-enemies of Israel).
- There is mounting evidence that the Trump administration informed Russia before striking Syria, and Russia obviously informed Syria, which explains why the Syrian army suffered no casualties and no Syrian planes were destroyed. (See for example this article or this article).
- Trump's national security adviser Michael Flynn lied about his contacts with Russian operatives and Trump eventually fired him when the news was leaked to the media.
- Attorney general Sally Yates has testified that she had confidentially warned Trump of Flynn's illicit activities before. Trump did not take any action at the time against Flynn but instead a few days later fired Yates.
- FBI's director James Comey documented a conversation with Trump in which Trump asked him to drop the Flynn investigation.
- Trump fired FBI's director James Comey while the FBI was investigating the Trump-Russia connection.
- The following day a photograph taken by a Russian photographer accidentally revealed that Trump had just met with the Russian ambassador and with the Russian foreign minister. The US media were not invited to this meeting, an odd meeting to start with (usually the president does not meet with a foreign minister unless the foreign minister is a good old friend).
- A few days later the Washington Post discovered that Trump revealed highly classified Israeli information to Russian foreign minister and ambassador.
- A few days later the New York times discovered that Trump reported to his Russian guests that he had fired the FBI director to stop the inquiry into the Trump-Russia scandal.
Trump's reaction after every revelation of his dealings with Russia is to deny them categorically and to call them "fake news", followed a few days later (when confronted with overwhelming evidence) by an admission that they were true with an explanation of why they were perfectly appropriate. Then he goes after the people who leaked the "fake news" to the media. His interest is clearly to hide his Russian connections: deny that they exist, and persecute those who expose them (which are often FBI, CIA and NSA agents, who get fired, which leaves the USA more vulnerable to foreign interference and terrorist attacks).
Finally the circumstantial evidence:
TM, ®, Copyright © 2017 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
- Trump has surrounded himself with an amazing cast of pro-Russia characters: Steve Bannon, Steven Mnuchin, Wilbur Ross, Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn, Rex Tillerson...
- Trump has insulted pretty much everybody in politics, from the Pope to the president of China, except one person: Putin.
- Michael Flynn is willing to testify about the Trump-Russia scandal only if given immunity from prosecution. When one asks for immunity, it usually means that a) he has information that the investigators don't have; and b) he knows he has committed a crime.
- The FBI and the Justice Department obtained a warrant to monitor Trump's adviser Carter Page because they presented evidence that there was "probable cause" to believe Page was acting as an agent of a foreign power, Russia. In 2013 Page met repeatedly with Russian spy Victor Podobnyy in New York, and in July 2016 Page delivered a lecture in Moscow that sounded exactly like official Russian propaganda. A few days later Page was at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland where he and other Trump advisers, including Jeff Sessions (who is now Trump's attorney general), met with the Russian ambassador, Sergey Kislyak. (The Trump organization has denied that Page had any role as an advisor to Trump, but Trump himself named him as a close adviser, hence Trump lied either then or now).
- More and more people are coming up to testify that the Trumps openly discussed receiving money from Russia. In 2014 Trump's son Eric said to James Dodson: "We don't rely on American banks. We have all the funding we need out of Russia." In 2008 Trump's other son, Donald Jr, speaking at a real estate conference, said: "We are looking all over the place, primarily Russia."
Back to the world news
- (march 2017)
What's in "Vladimir" Trump's tax returns?.
In 2014 the Organised Crime and Corruption Project (OCCRP) (click here) exposed the "Russian Laundromat" scandal. Police in 32 countries are now investigating a criminal scheme nicknamed "Global Laundromat" that ran between 2010 and 2014: wealthy Russian individuals transferred large sums of roubles to Moldova; from there, the money went to accounts in Latvia's banks Trasta Komercsbanka and Moldindconbank; and then one of the world's ten largest banks, Deutsche Bank (the bank that financed Hitler's regime and got rich selling the gold stolen by Hitler from the Jews) moved the money from Latvia to banks across the world. The records show that Deutsche Bank and other European banks laundered more than 20 billion dollars on behalf of secret Russian entities. Deutsche Bank was run by Josef Ackermann until 2012. Ackerman is the one who hired Andrei Kostyn, the son of Andrey Kostyn, the head of Russia's state bank, to run Deutsche Bank's operations in Russia. Kostyn coveniently died in 2011 in a snowmobile crash, so he cannot be interviewed about Deutsche's Russian clients. After leaving Deutsche, Ackermann became a manager of Renova Management, a holding company controlled by Russian oligarch Viktor Vekselberg.
At the same time, Deutsche Bank lawyers have left a thread of scathing memos accusing Trump of immoral behavior starting way back in 2008, when Trump refused to pay his debt to the German bank claiming that the economic crisis was a natural disaster that relieved of any responsibility to repay the debt. (Trump even accused Deutsche Bank of causing the economic crisis and therefore of owing him damages). As of 2017, Trump still owes Deutsche about $300 million. The funny thing is that suddenly Deutsche Bank reversed its attitude towards Trump, settled the dispute in 2010 and... started lending again. What made the bank suddenly trust again someone (a four-times bankrupt client) who had been so nasty to it just a few years earlier? Deutsche Bank has so far refused to answer. Deutsche Bank lent Trump money at a time when virtually no bank in New York was willing to. Deutsche Bank even started lending money to Trump's daughter Ivanka, to her husband Jared Kushner, and to Kushner's mother Seryl Stadtmauer. We are not talking a few thousand dollars: the grand total lent to the Trump family is close to $1 billion. I doubt that i could get even $1 from Deutsche Bank if i had Trump's record with that bank.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank was going from scandal to scandal. After the financial collapse of 2008 the world learned from whistle-blower Eric Ben-Artzi that the bank had "cooked" the books and was doomed to bankruptcy, but someone managed to save it. In particular, the bank was fined for violating sanctions against Iran and Syria, two Russian allies in the Middle East.
In 2015 the New Yorker magazine unveiled another money laundering scandal involving mysterious Russian money and Deutsche Bank, the "mirror trades" scandal. See this article for a summary. Deutsche brokers helped Russian clients turn roubles (whose origin were dubious) into dollars stashed outside Russia. Deutsche Bank investigated this case, found that about $10 billion was laundered out of Russia, three Russian employees at the bank were fired (Tim Wiswell, who had previously worked for Russia's second-wealthiest man Mikhail Fridman, Dina Maksutova and Georgiy Buznik), but the bank could not find out whose money it was, and why it was moved offshore. There are rumors (repeated by Bloomberg News) that the money or some of it belongs to Putin's cousin Igor Putin and to two close Putin friends, the Rotenberg brothers, Arkady and Boris, who got rich thanks to billion-dollar construction projects awarded to them by Putin's government (their latest contract is for a bridge connecting Russia with recently annexed Crimea). Others point at Ramzan Kadyrov's family and friends, Kadyrov being the ruthless governor of Chechnya. The bottom line is that money laundering through Deutsche Bank continued until 2015.
In 2015 Deutsche Bank started its own investigation into ties between Trump and Putin. So far it has refused to disclose what it has discovered. But, put it this way: out of millions of clients, this bank is investigating one in particular for ties with Russia (the investigation started before Trump ran for president).
Meanwhile, the economy of Cyprus was about to collapse. Cyprus' largest bank had to be rescued by the European Union. Many objected that the bank was notoriously affiliated with Russian interests, and suspected of money laundering. In 2013 an article in the German magazine Der Spiegel claimed that the Bank of Cyprus held up to $37 billion of Russian money. In 2014 the bank elected a new vice-chairman: Wilbur Ross, nicknamed "the king of bankruptcy" in the USA for profiting from bankrupt manufacturing firms. Ross, whose group owned 17% of the bank, soon brought on board two new investors and executives: Viktor Vekselberg and Vladimir Strzhalkovsky, a former KGB agent in the 1980s and close friend of Russia's president Putin. Vekselberg, whose wife and children are US citizens, became Russia's richest man (and the 40th richest person in the world) in 2013 after selling half of Russia's third-largest oil company TNK-BP to the government-owned conglomerate Rosneft for $28 billion, a deal widely seen as a move by Putin to further centralize power because Rosneft is headed by Igor Sechin, the former Russian deputy prime minister who is considered Russia's second most powerful man after Putin. Ross and Vekselberg then hired Josef Ackermann, the former CEO of Deutsche Bank who was now working for Vekselberg's Renova, and Ackermann became chairman of the Bank of Cyprus (how many banks would hire as chairman a man responsible for a series of money-laundering scandals?) In 2017 Trump appointed Wilbur Ross (of all people) as secretary of commerce. Of all people, Trump had to pick a man who works for a bank de facto controlled by Russia and possibly implicated in laundering money of Russian officials. Investigations both in Europe and the USA are trying to determine the connections among the Bank of Cyprus, Russia's government and Trump's organization, in particular whether Trump's organization received money from this bank that is de facto controlled by the Russian government.
In 2016 Russia announced one of its biggest privatizations since the 1990s: the sale of 20% of the giant government-owned oil company Rosneft. The 20% stake was officially bought for $12 billion by a Singaporean financial firm that is actually a joint venture between Qatar and the Swiss conglomerate Glencore, but that acquisition seems to have been done on behalf of a firm registered in the Cayman Islands whose owner is not known.
The Cayman Islands are a notorious "offshore tax haven".
In 2017 the Cayman Islands became a topic of discussion in the USA when the New York Times (see this article)
discovered that Steven Mnuchin was the director of an investment fund in the Cayman Islands; in other words, Mnuchin helped US businesses to avoid taxes.
Mnuchin, a banker who had made huge profits out of the financial crisis caused by banks like his (Goldman Sachs), had just been hired by Trump as treasury secretary (i.e. Trump hired Mnuchin, of all people, to manage the money of the US government).
A December 2016 dossier by a former British intelligence officer (see the dossier) hints at a deal between Rosnet's president Sechin and the Trump organization: remove the sanctions against Russia and we'll give you a share of Rosnet. Trump associates deny that there is any truth in that 35-page dossier... just like Trump denied all the other things that were later found out to be true. But the Cayman Islands connection is yet another amazing coincidence in this story of Russian-Trump coincidences.
For the record, the Guardian unveiled that British banks contributed to the money-laundering scheme (see this article). Alas, it wasn't just Deutsche Bank that helped Russian crooks. The Guardian hinted at a key role by the Federal Security Service of Russia (FSB), the successor to the Soviet-era KGB (such as Alexander Grigoriev).
Just before the Trump inauguration, in December 2016, his son-in-law Jared Kushner met with Russian banker Sergey Gorkov, whom Putin appointed as chairman of VneshEconomBank, Russia's biggest state-owned commercial bank that is under US sanctions because Putin used it as a vehicle to fund destabilizing programs against other countries. Its full Russian name means "The State Corporation Bank for Development and Foreign Economic Affairs".
In parallel, a company named
Prevezon was using Russian laundered money to buy "high-end commercial space and luxury apartments" (quote from the FBI report).
The owner of Prevezon is Denis Katsyv, the son of Pyotr Katsyv, vicepresident of Russian Railways, a Russian state company (whose former chairman Vladimir Yakunin is a close ally of President Vladimir Putin and subject to US sanctions after the Ukrainian invasion).
It would hard to believe that the son of one of Russia's most powerful man is laundering money without suffering extreme consequences unless the Russian government know and approve of it.
In 2014 Denis Katsyv was certainly working for the Russian government when it hired the law firm BakerHostetler to hire Fusion GPS (aka Glenn Simpson) to spread disparaging reports about the lawyer lobbying in favor of investigating the mysterious death of Sergei Magnitsky (the Russian lawyer who exposed the money-laundering scheme).
It us widely believed that Magnitsky
was tortured and murdered (officially, he died of a heart attack).
In May 2017 the Trump administration abruptly ended
the investigation into this Russian money-laundering case.
The court trial was supposed to begin in May 2017.
We will never hear the testimony under oath of
Louise Shelley (founding director of George Mason University's Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center)
that was scheduled for 3 days later; nor will we hear the testimony of
Jamison Firestone, Magnitsky's law partner.
What's in Trump's tax returns? It must be something terribly embarrassing if
he still keeps them secret. Something truly embarrassing would be, for example,
that Deutsche Bank loaned him Russian money at a time when noone else was
willing to save him; or that he owns a large share of Rosnet; or both.
If that is indeed what happened, i doubt that Putin did it out of charity.
So far every single statement that Trump and his cohorts made about Russia (and pretty much about everything else) has been proven to be false. He also tweeted (january 2017):
"I have nothing to do with Russia - No deals, no loans, no nothing!" You decide.
See also Vladimir Trump, Russia's stooge.
TM, ®, Copyright © 2017 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
Back to the world news
- (march 2017)
Vladimir Trump, Russia's stooge
Trump has become the most powerful propagandist for Russia in the West.
The young Putin's goal as a KGB agent was to delegitimize and discredit the USA,
and that has been his agenda since seizing power in Russia.
During his campaign Trump described NATO as "obsolete" (precisely what Russia
wants) and attacked the European Union (just like Russia did) and hailed
Britain's exit from the European Union (just like Russia did).
Trump initially denied any Russian connection but has slowly been forced
to admit each and every one.
Trump's campaign manager Paul Manafort worked for a pro-Russian group in Ukraine that paid millions of dollars to Washington lobbyists in 2012.
Trump chose as national security adviser Michael Flynn, who was invited to dinner by Putin in person, was paid by Russian propaganda television and had meetings with the Russian ambassador during the Republican convention.
Trump chose as commerce secretary Wilbur Ross, whose ties with three Russian oligarchs involved in money laundering are beyond dispute.
Now nobody doubts that Trump's staff had multiple secret contacts with Russia
in 2016 leading up to Russia's hacking attack against the Democratic Party.
There is still one piece of the puzzle that Trump vehemently denies: that
Russia has a video of Trump indulging in sex orgies during a visit to Russia.
You decide: do you believe a man who has consistently lied about everything,
and whose statements about Russian connections have all been proven false,
a man who publicly boasted about having indulged in promiscuous sex?
Incidentally, it is quintessential Putin to have someone taped during a sex
orgy and then use that video for blackmail.
I take bets that the video exists (the man who spoke about the existence of
that video is a former British secret agent with a formidable reputation who
has looked for absolutely zero publicity).
And finally there's the long-standing mystery of Trump's tax returns: we already
know that Trump didn't pay taxes, so why keep those tax returns so closely
guarded? The rational answer is that those tax returns contain information
that is so damning to potentially trigger an impeachment. Russians have always
wondered where Putin launders his billions: is it possible that Trump's tax
returns would help shed light on the mystery of Putin's hidden fortune?
Whatever the reason that Putin supports Trump, it is a fact that Putin achieved
what the USA often tries to do to others: regime change. The USA has failed
to achieve regime change in North Korea, Iran and, last but not least, Russia.
Putin succeeded in causing regime change in the USA.
It is obvious why last November
the Russian parliament gave a standing ovation to the news that Trump had
become the new president of the USA (despite losing by three million votes).
In a Fox News interview with Bill O'Reilly of February 2017, Trump stated that the USA has been as much a "killer" as Russia, therefore de facto justifying
Russian atrocities in Syria and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
There are dozens of statements like these in his speeches and tweets.
Trump keeps justifying Russia and bashing the USA and the USA's allies.
Trump attacks every institution that the West created to counter Russian
expansionism, notably NATO and the European Union (Putin's most hated
Trump attacked, i.e. delegitimized, all the institutions of the US government (from the CIA to the judges) that "made America great".
Putin will have succeeded whatever happens next. If Trump gets impeached for
widespread corruption or for monumental incompetence, Putin still wins: his
goal was to delegitimize the US democracy and to discredit the USA among its
allies, and Putin succeeded on both counts no matter what happens next.
Almost every comment on foreign policy that Trump makes is simply an echo of
similar comments made by Putin at one point or another. Trump has attacked NATO,
the European Union, NAFTA and the USA itself just like Putin routinely does.
Trump killed the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP),
one of the best trade deals ever designed,
that would have dealt a
deadly blow to Russia's aspirations in Asia.
It would have strengthened the position of the USA in the Pacific and isolated
China and Russia.
The result of killing that trade deal is to isolate the USA and
strengthen the position of China and Russia.
Trump has given Russia and especially China an unexpected gift.
Trump's USA has basically withdrawn from the Pacific Ocean and from Europe.
China and Russia can expand at will.
When Trump "renegotiates" NAFTA he will basically severe the USA from Canada
and Mexico, who will then be easily conquered economically by Russia and China.
When Trump told the world that NATO is obsolete, he did little to strengthen
the position of the USA in Europe. Europeans got the message loud and clear:
from now on, you are on your own against Russia's aggressions.
When Trump theatened to slap a 35% tariff on BMW cars, it did little to
make Germany a stronger ally. He did a lot to make Germany less likely to
punish Russia for the invasion of Ukraine and its role in the Syrian
holocaust. Germany is now wary that the USA is not a real friend and will
be left alone to face Russia's military might.
Following Trump's dismissal of Ukraine's claims, nobody in Eastern Europe
(the former Soviet satellites) believes that the USA would defend them from
a Russian invasion.
The USA is de facto out of Eastern Europe. The region that fell under US
influence after the collapse of the Soviet Union is now again shifting towards
Obama had offered Iran a way to become an ally of the USA in the Middle East.
Trump has promised to reverse that policy. Guess who benefits: Russia will
be able to strengthen its ties to Iran. The Russia-Iran axis will dominate
the Middle East as Trump isolates the USA in the region.
Russia shares a border with Iran
and sells Iran high-tech weapons. Iran is de facto the foot soldier of
Russia in Syria. They both protect the Assad regime against the pro-democracy
rebels (that also used to be pro-USA before Trump insulted Muslims and banned
Syrian freedom-fighters from the USA).
Trump's ban on Muslims further isolates the USA in the Middle East. (I suspect that Saudi Arabia and Turkey were spared from the ban because they have been the main supporters of ISIS and Trump needs a terrorist attack in the USA to consolidate his power. See Is Trump preparing a terrorist attack on the USA?).
Some of these actions could be reversed by Trump's successor (assuming that
Trump doesn't find a way to stay in power until he dies), but some of
the consequences are irreversible: nobody in the world will trust the USA
the same way it did before, and nobody will think of the USA as the most
stable country in the world. Russia and China are clearly more stable
and more reliable.
24 hours after the phone conversation between Putin and Trump, fighting resumed
in Eastern Ukraine. A few days later, one of the most famous Russian dissidents,
was hospitalized with symptoms of acute poisoning. A few days later Alexei Navalny, the only politician willing to run against Putin in the presidential elections, was found guilty of drummed-up charges and banned from running in the elections.
Within one month of Trump's inauguration, Russia sent a warplane to spy on a US carrier, deployed a missile that violates pact, restarted violence in Ukraine
Putin's strategy is to weaken the USA worldwide through Trump and to strengthen
Russia's ties with countries that were beginning to fall into the orbit of the
USA, such as Iran and China.
Trump will be remembered for many generations as the man who caused the
decline of the USA as a world power.
TM, ®, Copyright © 2017 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
Back to the world news
- (february 2017)
Trump's omissions tell it all
Trump talks and tweets a lot, and every day the media have to rush to cover
a new idiotic statement even before they finish debating the previous one,
but pay attention to what Trump does NOT say and you can get a glimpse
of the real Trump.
Trump banned citizens from seven countries. That list did NOT include
Saudi Arabia (the country that gave the world most of the Islamic terrorists,
the country that originally supported Al Qaeda, the Taliban and ISIS)
and did NOT include Russia (the only major country that supports the Assad
regime in Syria, a regime that has gased and hanged thousands of its own people).
Then Trump issued a list of some 70 terrorist attacks that in his opinion
have been under-reported by the press. That's telling. Those terrorist
attacks have been widely reported by the press, so Trump and his staff
are basically admitting that they don't read the press. They are so ignorant
that they think the Paris and Istanbul attacks have been under-reported.
Unfortunately, the irony will be lost on many of Trump supporters because
such supporters do exactly the same: they are as ignorant as Trump of world
affairs, so it might indeed come as surprising to them to hear of these
attacks that were widely covered all over the world when they happened.
But the point is not Trump's well-known ignorance. The point is that those
70+ terrorist attacks listed by Trump omit two of the worst ones:
Dylann Roof's attack on an African-American church that killed nine people
(one of the worst terrorist attacks on US soil since 2001) and
Alexandre Bissonnette's attack on a Muslim mosque that killed six people in
Quebec City (the single worst terrorist attack in Canada in recent memory).
Why did Trump omit these two terrorist attacks from his list?
Because they were perpetrated by two white Christians who watch Fox News and
share Trump's radical right-wing views.
The omissions tell you a lot about Trump's idea of terrorism: killing
African-Americans and Muslims is not terrorism for Trump.
Just like the other omissions tell you a lot about Trump's real life:
Trump omitted Putin's Russia from the list of terrorist countries
because Putin is Trump's boss and Trump omitted Saudi Arabia because Trump owns
eight companies in Saudi Arabia.
A few days later came another interesting omission.
Russia's main opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, was found guilty of embezzlement and barred from running in the presidential election against Putin.
Trump did not condemn it, and, in fact, did not mention it at all. Nor did
Fox News. Nor did any of Trump's associates and cheerleaders.
This sounds eerily reminiscent of Trump's demand that his main opponent, Hillary Clinton, be jailed. I can already predict what will happen to Trump's opponent
at the next elections.
Click here for the dossier on the allegations of Russia-Trump collusion.
TM, ®, Copyright © 2017 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
Back to the world news
- (february 2017)
Is Trump preparing a terrorist attack on the USA?
Ominous signals are coming from the White House, currently occupied by
a crook, liar, racist, sexist and borderline sociopath who lost the election
by three million votes and got help from Russia to become president.
His tax returns presumably show the extent of his connections with Russia
and Saudi Arabia, the two biggest sponsors of terrorism in the world.
It is a fact that Trump has repeatedly praised Russia's president
Vladimir Putin, who is responsible for the crises in Ukraine, Syria and in
his own Chechnya, and who many experts consider the USA's number one enemy
in the world.
It is also a fact that Trump tried to ban citizens of seven Muslim countries
from entering the USA, but those seven countries have never killed a single
US citizen on US soil, unlike Saudi Arabia, the country from which Osama bin
Laden came from, the country that was the first financial supporter of
all the terrorist organizations that you can name: Al Qaeda, Taliban, ISIS, etc.
When a judge correctly determined that such a travel ban was unconstitutional,
Trump quickly tweeted that the judge is now responsible if "something happens".
Nobody is surprised that Trump tried to violate the law (over his life he has
been sued hundreds of times and mostly settled out of court),
and it is not surprising that Trump would attack a judge (he has
attacked all the institutions that curb presidential power, whether the press
or the judicial or his own party).
But this sounds a bit too much like Putin's strategy.
Putin was raised by the KGB, the sinister agency of the Soviet Union.
He worked as a secret agent and learned how to
assassinate people and destabilize foreign countries. He became the most
powerful man in Russia in 1999. The way he became the de-facto dictator is
important: he is widely suspected of staging a terrorist attack against his own people.
In 1999 two journalists, independently, published articles in which they predicted terrorist attacks in Russia, based on government leaks:
Giulietto Chiesa and Aleksandr Zhilin.
In september of 1999 that's precisely what happened:
Chechen separatists were blamed for terrorist attacks on Buynaksk, Moscow and Volgodonsk that killed nearly 300 people, but rumors immediately circulated
that the attacks were work of the FSB (the renamed KGB),
especially after similar unexploded bombs were found at Ryazan
and they were traced back to the Russian military.
Putin used those terrorist attacks to justify a brutal military campaign
in Chechnya, a Muslim region of Russia, that ended up killing tens of thousands of Muslims.
More importantly, he presented himself as the strong man who could save Russia
and the Russian public saw him as a savior. Nobody dared oppose him as he
increased his power way beyond what was allowed by the constitution.
Bottom line: the evidence is that Putin staged the terrorist attacks to
justify changes in the laws that allowed him to rule indefinitely with
After that Putin correctly saw that the courts of law and the investigative
reporters were the only threat to his power and proceeded to eliminate them
one way or another. Several were physically eliminated, others had to flee
to the Western countries, others simply retired from public view.
Trump seems to be setting up the USA for a similar narrative.
He has already invented non-existing terrorist attacks and massacres both
in Europe and in the USA. And he is now blaming the media and the judges
for making the USA vulnerable.
To me this sounds like a carefully-architected plan to prepare the public
for a terrorist attack and then blame such terrorist attack on the media
and the judges, which he perceives
as his sworn enemies just like Putin did at the beginning of his dictatorship.
We just don't have time to analyze and comment everything that Trump and
his associates say, right? It's more than a full-time job. Every day they
come out with some outrageously false statement. Every day there is something
that, under Obama or any other president, would become a "scandal" haunting
the president for years. But Trump does one every day and it is physically
impossible to keep up with him. Right?
Well, the avalanche of provocative statements issued by Trump and his associates serves
a very rational purpose: to make sure that the media, the institutions and,
more importantly, the public cannot focus on Trump's treacherous
plan. This is a man committed to cause damage to the USA.
The people who think that Trump is an idiot are naive: Trump's strategy is very
clever and it is exactly what Putin, a very clever leader, did in Russia.
(In mid-february Trump held a Mussolini-style rally in which he claimed, and
i'm quoting verbatim: "You look at what's happening last night in Sweden. Sweden, who would believe this. Sweden." That's yet another non-existent terrorist
attack invented by Trump and his cohorts. There has never been an Islamic terrorist attack in Sweden, certainly not "yesterday" but not even before yesterday.
This is no stupid man. He knows exactly what he is doing: he is preparing the
US public for a major terrorist attack that he will then blame on what he calls "radical Islam", when in fact that terrorist attack will have been masterminded by a radical right-wing Russian operative).
The suspicion that Trump is a traitor who obeys orders from Russia to
undermine the USA is stronger than ever. Now we can also suspect that he is
planning a terrorist attack in the USA, which he will then blame on his
"enemies" and will use as an excuse to replace honest judges and journalists
with "friendly" judges and journalists.
TM, ®, Copyright © 2017 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
Back to the world news
- (january 2017)
"Vladimir" Trump welcomes sponsors of terrorism and bans fighters of terrorism.
Trump continues to weaken the defenses of the USA. Defying a centuries-old tradition of
welcoming persecuted people, this unelected impostor signed an
executive orders to block the immigration of people from Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. These are the people who fight terrorism.
Iranians are Shiite: they are enemies of Al Qaeda and ISIS. Iran was the first
country to fight the Taliban in Afghanistan and ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
Iraqis, Syrians and Libyans are fighting ISIS for real, while Trump (a coward
and traitor who dodged the draft in the USA) sits comfortably in his chair.
Sudan and Somalia were probably added to the list just because their names
sound exotic: there are only a handful of immigrants from those countries
On the other hand, Trump welcomes people from the countries that sponsor
terrorism: Saudi Arabia (that provided most of the 2001 terrorists who killed
3,000 US citizens), Pakistan (the homeland of the Taliban, the country where
Osama bin Laden went hiding), Afghanistan (half of which is ruled by the
Taliban and by Al Qaeda),
Turkey (that was the main sponsor of ISIS), Israel (that
has done much to create tension in the Middle East), and of course
his favorite, Russia, without which there would be no ISIS because Syria's
dictator would have fallen long ago.
None of the Muslim countries in which Trump has invested (hotels, golf courses,
etc) is included in this list.
Trump of course didn't ban the National Rifle Association: all the terrorists
since 2001 were US citizens who bought their weapons legally thanks to the
actions of the NRA.
(The good news is that Trump did not ban Palestinians, who used to be considered terrorists no matter what Israel does to them, but i'm afraid that this happened out of Trump's ignorance, not out of his knowledge of the facts).
Make no mistake: the same way that this madman can sign an executive order
to help terrorists he can press a button and start a nuclear holocaust.
The USA is now ruled by a man who works for the enemy.
TM, ®, Copyright on the text © 2017 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
Back to the world news
- (january 2017)
"Vladimir" Trump's unstoppable march towards the Russification of the USA.
It is telling that
there are calls for "unity" from every quarter, including Barack Obama,
but we are supposed to unite only in one direction: meekly accepting Vladimir Trump as the legitimate president of the USA.
This is a sign that we live in an increasingly totalitarian age.
There are actually an infinite number of ways in which a nation can "unite",
and uniting behind a vulgar crook, charlatan, traitor and impostor doesn't
seem to me the best way. Uniting against him, for example, is another one.
But you are supposed to think
and act according to predefined rules and regulations, just like when a
conference website asks you "are you excited about the future" and the
only option is "yes" (i just saw this when trying to register)
or when facebook gives you a Like button but not a Dislike button.
In my opinion there is a better way to unite: the nation should unite
in restoring decency and integrity to the presidency, and in appeasing the
terror generated around the free democratic world by the 2016 US election.
Some will say that we should wait and see what he does. But he's the one
who (without a mandate from the people) pledged to take action from the first day in office. If he takes action on his first day in office, why shouldn't we?
What is more important: to
repeal Obamacare (which he actually didn't do) or to keep nuclear weapons
off the hands of a sociopath?
A headline that would summarize what is in the minds of billions of people around the world should read: "Vladimir Trump has officially been inaugurated as the illegitimate president of the Disunited States of America, a province of Russia."
Trump has undermined first NATO (calling it "obsolete" more than once) and then
the CIA (first ridiculing it for its gaffe on the weapons of mass destruction in
Iraq and then even comparing it with Nazi Germany).
How can millions of US citizen be so naive?
Who benefits if the CIA and NATO are demolished by Trump?
Which country benefits? It doesn't take a PhD in political science: Russia.
Which is the only country that Trump has not criticized? Russia.
The suspicion that Vladimir Trump is a Russian agent, paid (see his tax returns) and instructed by Moscow to destroy the power of the USA is more justified than ever.
It is suicidal that the US Congress is allowing a suspected Russian agent to
take control of the US nuclear arsenal and of all strategic military assets of the USA around the world. We can only hope that generals and admirals are preparing to hide information from Vladimir Trump and disobey his orders.
We can only hope that the CIA and the NSA have a top-secret plan to curb the
power of this sociopath.
Alas, there is a chance that, instead, scores of CIA agents will resign and
scores of generals will retire, which was precisely Putin's goal.
As expected, Trump is appointing to his cabinet a grotesque group of:
Wall Street mafia (Steven Mnuchin, formerly of Goldman Sachs;
Rex Tillerson, the CEO of oil multinational Exxon, famous for the 1989 oil
spill in Alaska, the biggest of all times, and for a 2015 scandal about hiding
that it knew all along about its impact on climate change;
billionaire Wilbur Ross, better known as the "king of bankruptcy";
fast-food billionaire Andrew Puzder);
borderline war criminals (Mike Pompeo, who defended the CIA's torture program, as director of the CIA?);
certified racists (Stephen Bannon, Jeff Sessions, Michael Flynn);
friends of Putin (abovesaid Michael Flynn as National Security Adviser? Wilbur Ross as secretary of commerce?),
family members (Jared Kushner),
and plain idiots (Rick Perry, who wanted to eliminate
the Department of Energy, to lead the Department of Energy?
Sonny Perdue, who prays in public for rain when there is a drought, as Secretary of Agriculture?
Ben Carson, a surgeon with no experience, to lead Housing Development?
Scott Pruitt, who denies that climate is changing, to lead the
Environmental Protection Agency that is supposed to protect us from climate change?)
This is a government designed to destroy the USA.
Using a tactic widely practiced by his master Putin, Trump has lambasted all the institutions that stand between him and absolute rule: political rivals (all the Republicans who opposed him or just criticized him plus Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren), journalists (from Megyn Kelly to CNN), judges (any judge who rules against his many frauds), generals (John Allen), secret services (the CIA's director), civil-rights activists (John Lewis), polls ("phony" and "rigged") and even comedians (Saturday Night Live).
He, the master of fake news, is accusing of fake news any media that dare publish the truth about him (100% Putin-ism). The call for censorship is even too clear. (And it is already effective: on January 17 all European media were reporting a lawsuit against Trump filed by a young woman, but none of the main US media mentioned it).
It is not a coincidence that Aleppo fell to the Russians at about the same time
that Russia got Trump elected president of the USA.
Russia has interfered in US politics the same way that it interfered in Syria,
trying to create the same kind of civil war.
Putin and the radical right-wing media are carrying out an attack to the core of the US democracy.
Russia has learned that it can destabilize the West without any need for
massive military operations: just surgical strikes in Ukraine and Syria that
send shock waves throughout Europe, and fake news that send shock waves
among the low-tech low-education blue-collar masses of the USA.
Putin understood that now in the USA everything happens in cyberspace: those who control cyberspace control society.
Putin is man of the year 2016.
Putin ended 2016 winning the war in Syria against the West and installing
a puppet dictator in the USA.
Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world and now indirectly also controls the nuclear arsenal of the USA.
Putin convinced the world that the USA is not to be trusted in the long term,
convinced NATO members that NATO will not defend them (the way Russia would),
and convinced Europeans that the European Union is not protecting their
citizens the way Russia protects Russians.
When, upon hearing news of Trump's victory, the Russian parliament
gave Putin a standing ovation, it was totally deserved.
Do not underestimate the consequences of fake news.
The trouble in the Middle East started precisely with fake news: that the
Holocaust never happened, that Zionists stole land from the Palestinians (they actually bought it legally under the laws of the Ottoman Empire), that the USA
invaded Iraq to steal the oil, that Muslims had nothing to do with the 2001 terrorist attacks, etc. When i was in the Middle East in 2005, people routinely
told me that thousands of Muslims had been killed in the streets of New York
in retaliation for the 2001 attacks: in reality not a single Muslim was killed,
but fake news like this one were fueling the "insurrection" against the USA.
News media like Al Jazeera became masters of fake news, and sowed the seeds
of today's hatred between Sunnis and Shiites.
The result of all these fake news was the civil wars in Iraq and Syria.
Fox News' campaign of lies and exaggerations has had the same effect, and
the fake news spread in the USA by Russia and other radical right-wing
supporters of Donald Trump could end up having the same effect:
fueling a civil war between "blue" and "red" states.
Blue states are 100% justified in being fed up that the red states (generally
poorer and backwards, and therefore more gullible when it comes to fake news) end up determining who becomes the most powerful person
in the world, a power bestowed on this person largely by the science and
technology of the blue states.
And do not ignore the problems that created this bigger problem: the USA has
weird electoral rules that are often undemocratic
(see Do not get over it).
Worse: it does not have a law
to limit the power of the president to start a nuclear war: the president can launch a nuclear attack without asking for anybody's permission.
After spending decades telling the world that no rogue state and no crazy
politician should be allowed to get near a nuclear bomb, the USA has just given
control of 3,000 nuclear bombs to a sociopath.
Congress urgently needs to reform the constitution to make sure that 1. the will
of the people is implemented, and 2. keep the president from unilaterally
launching a nuclear strike.
Trump has told Merkel that Germany made a "catastrophic" mistake in accepting one million refugees. Who made the bigger mistake: Germany that accepted one million honest law-abiding refugees, or the USA that accepted a crook and sociopath supported by Russia as its president? Which country is becoming "great again": Germany that inspires billions of people around the world or the USA that has to be ashamed of the most ignorant and dishonest leader in the world and will be
completely isolated in the free democratic world?
"Vladimir" Trump is determined to turn "America the great" into a poor and defenseless region of Russia, a Dagestan or Khakassia, instead of taking inspiration from Germany.
As a friend said, this time God did not bless America (Putin did).
Accused of not paying taxes during a debate with Hillary Clinton, Trump quipped: "That makes me smart." Clinton's rebuttal "What does that make the rest of us?"
is still a good question for Trump voters to ask themselves.
(Other articles on Vladimir Trump: click here)
TM, ®, Copyright © 2017 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
Back to the world news
A selection of cute "macros" from the web:
- (january 2017)
"Lock Him Up": Trumpism and the UNITED states .
Ironically, Trump (who is obviously not a real Republican but just a selfish amoral crook) has a real chance to unite the country. Read below and you'll see that on many issues he is more of a socialist than Barack Obama (and this man who divorced twice and boasted about his extramarital sex is obviously way less religious than Hillary Clinton or the Obamas).
- Trumpism and the Republican Party
- The Republican Party would have never approved a socialist agenda of infrastructure spending and anti-corporate legislation if a Democratic president had proposed it. It might accept it now that it comes from a radical right-wing president (just like it took a Republican right-wing president to pull out of Vietnam and make peace with China).
- Trump has insulted only two Democrats (Hillary "Lock her up" Clinton and Elizabeth "Pocahontas" Warren) but he has insulted scores of powerful Republicans in the Senate, from Paul Ryan to John McCain. You can bet that these powerful brahmins are just waiting for a chance to get back at him.
- Trump is a communist in disguise. He offered a firm advantages in order for that firm to keep 1,000 jobs in the USA. What about all the competitors of this firm, who are suddenly at a disadvantage? He told Apple to bring back jobs from overseas (who will buy Apple products made in the USA that cost twice the products made by competitors overseas?) Will Trump subsidize Apple too? What about Apple's competitors in the USA? Who else will get Trump's subsidies to keep jobs in the USA? The Republican Party strongly opposed Obama's actions in 2009 to salvage Detroit's car manufacturers on the ground that government intervention stifles competition and distorts markets, which is absolutely correct. Republicans would have strongly opposed any attempt by a Democratic president to reward a company over others. Trump is telling US companies what to do like the old Soviet regime used to: government picks winners and losers. Trump is more aligned with the left-wing of the Democratic Party than with his own party.
- The USA is witnessing a realignment of ideologies. The "left" used to be defender of the proletariat (the blue-collar class), but it has now become the defender of the high-tech white-collar jobs. The next step for Trumpism will be to convince the poorest ethnic minorities that the Democratic Party is no longer their defender. This is clearly possible because the poorest minorities are still the poorest. For example, Democrats never found the gut to tell black communities that the problem is not police brutality but the brutality of too many young black males. If you don't count young black males, the crime rate in the USA is not too much higher than in Europe, but this is a statistic that you can only whisper to your closest friends because it is politically incorrect. If Donald Trump becomes the first president to say it loud and clear, he may actually win over that minority.
- Trumpism and the Democratic Party
- The problem that Trump has with the Democratic Party is very simple: Hillary Clinton won the election by almost three million votes, Trump lost it. Anything that Trump does claiming to have a mandate from the people is simply illegitimate: he does NOT have a mandate from the people.
- It doesn't help that Trump behaves like a sore loser. Trump: you lost the popular vote, admit it and get over it.
- Trumpism and Science
- Scientists and inventors of the USA (especially in the so-called "blue state" that voted overwhelmingly against Trump) have to think long and hard whether they want to continue research that will help their government remain the world's superpower. All the scientists who worked in and for Germany in the 1930s lived to regret that they directly helped a sociopath like Hitler harm millions of people. Let us not repeat the same mistakes over and over again.
- If you believe that Trump could engineer the next big terrorist attack, support torture, cause genocides, crack down on dissent, lead to a climate disaster, silence the media and increase the gap between rich and poor, why would you "work" for him? why would you want to help him in any form or fashion to achieve such heinous goals?
- This is particularly true of Silicon Valley which, alone, provides the US government with most of the technology to fight wars, to spy on citizens and, potentially, to control all information in the country. Silicon Valley, Boston, Seattle, New York, New Jersey, Maryland and Chicago (that together constitute the vast majority of the high-tech world) need to study the words "civil disobedience". And, of course, "secession".
- Silicon Valley is being agnostic about Trump because it smells opportunities: military investment would bring back the age of the DARPA-funded military investments that triggered the first boom of Silicon Valley; and deregulation is always welcome by Silicon Valley's rampant capitalism.
- But forcing Apple and the other high-tech firms to bring jobs back to the USA is a great idea if you want to boost the business of Apple's competitors around the world and destroy the high-tech industry of the USA. Apple, Google, Facebook and so forth desperately need one thing: Chinese and Indian immigrants. The last thing they need is the uneducated blue-collar dropouts of the Midwest and the rednecks of the South who voted for Trump's "Let's make America great again". Silicon Valley "is" great, as great as any center of technology has ever been.
- Trumpism and False News
TM, ®, Copyright © 2016 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
- Trump won the Midwestern states thanks to a campaign of scientific lying and inventing false news. This is not going away any time soon. It works. If you keep repeating a lie, eventually people think it's true. As his role model Adolf Hitler wrote: "The size of the lie is a definite factor in causing it to be believed" (Mein Kampf). The similaries between Trump's USA and 1933 Germany are obvious: Hitler was elected with a minority of votes, after promising to make Germany great again.
- I have very intellectual friends who rarely read more than 140 characters. If intellectuals rarely read more than 140 characters, imagine the low-income individuals with no college degrees.
- Like it or not, we now officially live in the age of fake news.
Back to the world news
- (january 2017)
"Lock Him Up": Trumpism and the World .
TM, ®, Copyright © 2016 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
- Trumpism and North Korea
- Trump's obsession with the "Iran deal" is a bit comic. Iran poses no threat to the USA, and in fact it has been fighting the same enemies (Al Qaeda, Taliban, ISIS, etc). I doubt that Trump knows where North Korea is, but that country constitutes the main immediate danger for the USA. North Korea does have a nuclear weapon (unlike Trump's obsession Iran) and will soon have missiles capable of striking the USA (unlike Iran). Very soon it will be capable of striking Hawaii, if not Alaska, if not California. The West Coast is disposable for Trump because it is mostly inhabited by liberals, but it may be bad publicity when North Korea wipes out Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Boeing and Intel. North Korea has benefited from the hesitation of all the previous US presidents. Far from being an irrational regime, its regime is very rational: once it has nuclear weapons, it will be able to extort great deals from the powers and revitalize its economy. Then all the other countries of the world will learn the lesson: look at what happened to Iraq and Libya that did NOT have nuclear bombs, and look what happens to North Korea that has it.
- Trumpism and China
- China obviously wins if the USA withdraws from the transpacific trade agreement (the TPP). Trade deals are not meant only for economic growth: they are also strategic long-term alliances. If the USA withdraws from the TPP, the small countries of Asia will be pushed into China's orbit without any need for China to use force. Killing the TPP is the biggest possible gift to China. (The TPP also happens to be the best trade deal ever engineered by the USA, an excellent trade deal)
- China has now close relatioships with Cambodia, which is basically its Trojan horse into ASEAN (ASEAN cannot approve any anti-Chinese policy because of Cambodia's veto) and has made peace with the Philippines. 2016 was the first year in a decade that the USA and Cambodia did not stage joint military exercises. It was also the first year that Cambodia and China staged military exercises.
- President Xi was a start at the 2016 Davos meeting of the world's most powerful people. He delivered a speech in which he defended globalization and the environment, two items in which the USA used to be leading. Now the USA is following (maybe not even following).
- Trump's USA is a model of instability. Xi's China is a model of stability. Which country would choose the USA as a friend over China?
- Nobody (not even in China itself) truly understands why the USA tolerates that Google, Facebook, Twitter, and even scaruffi.com are banned in China while no Chinese product is banned in the USA. "Fair" trade with China means that all US products get a chance in China. This will be the first test of how serious Trump was about "fair trade".
- Trump's protectionist policies could lead to a much stronger dollar, which means much cheaper imports, in which case East Asia and Latin America would not need any trade agreement (neither TPP nor NAFTA) to easily "steal" jobs from the USA.
- Trump accuses China of manipulating its currency but China has been spending billions of dollars to prop its currency up, not down. First of all, China doesn't want its billionaires to move all their money out of the country, which they would do if the Chinese currency declined. Secondly, China's ambition is to make its currency and international currency as good as the dollar, which cannot happen is the Chinese currency is weak.
- A surge in US military presence may actually tame the hawks in China. Hawks prevail when the military gap with the USA seems to close and it makes sense to invest in closing it completely. Doves prevail when the gap is so big that it makes no sense to even try to compete militarily: better invest in lifting 700 million people out of poverty. His increased military spending is probably a really bad idea because we just don't have the money, BUT it may actually have a positive effect on Asia. In every major nation there is a constant fight between hawks and doves. The doves win whenever it is impossible to catch up with the regional power. The hawks win whenever the gap with the regional power shrinks and it looks like it is possible to catch up. Make the gap huge and they all focus on domestic issues (the doves win). Let the gap shrink and they all focus on building up the military. So... that's China. Right now the hawks are winning because the gap with the USA has shrunk and the hawks have a convincing argument that China can catch up militarily. If the USA builds an extra 100 warships and deploys them in front of China, it will help the doves: impossible to catch up with the USA, let's just focus on our economy. There's a problem though: the USA, not China, is broke.
- Ironically, Trump wants to bring back the manufacturing jobs to the USA at the same time that China doesn't want them anymore. China wants Silicon Valeys, not Detroits. Trump wants the USA to look more like China when China wants to look more like the USA.
- Trump wants to spend China into oblivion like Reagan spent the Soviet Union into oblivion: first of all, the Polish Pope and the Afghan mujaheddins may have done more to destroy the Soviet Union than Reagan's military spending; but, secondly, why do we think that the USA could spend China into oblivion rather than China spending the USA into oblivion? Who has the cash these days? The USA needs to borrow money from China in order to build its warships and warplanes.
- In 2016 these are the countries with the highest-achieving primary and secondary pupils: 1. Singapore; 2. South Korea; 3. Taiwan; 4. Hong Kong; 5. Japan (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study, TIMSS 2016). There is no China, but notice that 1, 3 and 4 are Chinese regions, located outside main China but still inhabited by Chinese. These three regions have left the USA behind. It is just a matter of time before declining US education is passed by rising Chinese education. Trump has proven to millions of US families that it is not worth studying.
- China, the only ally that North Korea has, is unlikely to help the USA on North Korea. The reason is simple: China has only one ally, that one. Another reason is that, all considered, having a nuclear North Korea is not such a bad thing for China, which is surrounded by dozens of US military bases. Imagine if Chinese troops and ships were deployed in Canada and Mexico. That's precisely how the Chinese feel: there are US troops and ships in Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Mongolia, Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Thailand, Singapore, and the USA has a nuclear treaty with India. What has China got to retaliate?
- Trumpism and the Middle East
- If Trump repeals the nuclear deal with Iran and reinstates sanctionsagainst Iran, the Middle East will officially divide into a Sunni-Jewish alliance, stretching from Egypt to Saudi Arabia via Israel, and a Shiite alliance, stretching from Lebanon to Yemen via Syria, Iraq and Iran.
- Islamic terrorism in the USA is largely an invention of the radical right-wing media and their political emanations. The fact is that there has been no real terrorist attack in the USA since 2001. The mass killings credited to ISIS are simply part of the pattern of mass killings in a country that has more guns than driver licenses. Mathematically speaking, the chances that you will be killed by a terrorist is much lower than the chance of being killed by your neighbor or a family member.
- ISIS is not an enemy of the USA more than the intellectuals of France are. Nor is Iran. Both have wildly different goals in life. ISIS is certainly an enemy of the Shiites (it started out by fighting against Syria and Iraq, both supported by Shiite Iran), and the USA is currently allied with Jews (Israel) and Sunnis (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, etc), who are on the same side of ISIS (like it or not); so the USA is not necessarily an enemy of ISIS. If the USA is indeed fighting ISIS and Al Qaeda, then Iran is on the same side: Iran was fighting both the Taliban and Al Qaeda way before the USA did, and Iran was the first country to fight ISIS when it started expanding in Syria. The USA never truly made up its mind about whom it is fighting and with whom.
- The Middle East is a major crisis for Europe, not for the USA. It is Europe that has to deal with millions of refugees, and it is Europe that imports huge amounts of oil from the Middle East. The reason that keeps dragging the USA into the Middle East is called Israel. Too many US presidents took orders from the Israeli prime minister, and Trump has promised to do the same. (See The USA is a banana republic)
- The Middle East is a major opportunity for Russia, that had no allies before the Syrian civil war broke out, not for the USA, that will retain its allies whichever way the Syrian civil war ends. Trump will help his boss Putin if the USA fights the same enemy that Russia has there.
- Iran, on the other hand, is a major opportunity for the USA, that could turn an enemy into the ally that it once was. Alas, the prime minister of Israel (that de facto controls the US Congress) is opposed to Iran and Trump's boss in Moscow does not want a US-Iran alliance.
- Trumpism and Russia: see Russia and the USA have more in common than they would like to admit
- Trumpism and Europe:
- Trump is a dividing figure in Europe just like he is in the USA, but, like in the USA, sentiments are ambivalent about the crook in chief.
- A large segment of European public opinion is appalled that all European leaders keep excusing Islam. When Trump openly blames Islam for the endless terrorist attacks that are destroying the Western way of life, it is not shudders of fear that spread through Europe but sighs of hope that someone will finally use common sense.
- Climate change is a big issue in Europe. Trump does not believe that it is a big deal, most Europeans do... and blame the USA for it.
- From the European standpoint, the big mess in Iraq, Syria and Lybia was caused by US incompetence and ignorance. Trump has criticized the George W Bush wars, the first Republican to do so. That's a promising sign for Europeans; but Trump also embodies more than anyone else US incompetence and ignorance; and that is definitely not a promising sign for Europeans who had to live through eight years of George W Bush incompetence and ignorance.
- Trump is the first US president ever who does not support European unification (he loudly praised the British for leaving the EU). Suddenly, Europeans realize that they may have to take care of themselves. Smaller countries on the eastern front suddenly realize that the USA (run by a Putin stooge like trump) would not protect them from a Russian invasion: who will? France? Germany? Britain? Not very likely in these days and times.
- Coincidence or not, Western Europe was at war for more than 1600 years before the USA occupied it in 1945. The longest period of peace in Western Europe since the fall of the Roman Empire coincides with the Pax Americana that protected Western Europe against Nazism first and Communism later. The Pax Americana was already weakened by Obama, who wasn't willing to intervene in Ukraine, and may be terminated under Trump. Then we will find out if the Europeans have truly become peaceful.
- The only Western European politicians who were ecstatic about Trump's victory were the radical right-wing leaders Geert Wilders (Netherlands), Frauke Petry (Germany) and Marine Le Pen (France). They share Trump's racist, nationalist and anti-liberal views. Poland and Hungary are already ruled by radical right-wing populist autocrats. Italy's equivalent of these nationalist parties is the party run by a comedian who goes by the name Grillo (Cricket), a movement that was preceded by the racist Northern League in a government coalition with the populist right-wing tycoon Silvio Berlusconi (does it ring a bell? Tea Party + Donald Trump?). These are all "Euro-skeptics", hostile to the great international organizations such as European Union, euro and NATO. All of them want to make their country "great again".
- Many in Britain viewed membership of their country in the European Union as a sort of European occupation, almost as if France had achieved Napoleon's goal or, worse, Germany had achieved Hitler's goal. These British people probably view Trump as a restorer of the traditional order, in which the Anglosaxons stand up against (not join) continental Europe.
- Donald Trump and British prime minister Theresa May want to resurrect the kind of relationship that Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher enjoyed in the 1990s. The Reagan-Thatcher revolution mainly relied on a common enemy (the Soviet Union) but also on the "trickle-down" economics that probably is the single most important cause of (ironically) the impoverishment of the rust-belt towns that today vote for Trump and May. Last but not least, the end of the Cold War combined with their passion for free trade, turned the developing world into one giant offsourcing paradise (e.g. China and India), which is precisely the event that crippled the manufacturing base in the USA, i.e. impoverished the people who now vote for Trump.
- Ironically, Trump also has a real chance to unite the West, but around very different values than the idealistic values of the last 70 years. For better and for worse, many Europeans are increasingly hungry for someone who says what Trump said about Islam, immigration, the EU, NATO, etc.
- Who would have predicted 70 years ago (at the end of World War II) that in 2017 the last hope of Western liberal-democratic ideology would be Germany: Angela Merkel was the only world leader who, when congratulating Trump for his victory, reminded Trump of the value of (quote) "democracy, freedom and respect for the law and the dignity of man, independent of origin, skin color, religion, gender, sexual orientation or political views." Germany may find itself alone again, but this time on the side of defending democracy against the rising tides of fascism in Britain, the USA and the rest of Europe.
Back to the world news
More articles on Trump
- January-December 2016
- January-December 2015
- January-December 2014
- January-December 2013
- January-December 2012
- January-December 2011
- January-December 2010
- January-December 2009
- January-December 2008
- January-December 2007
- January-December 2006
- January-December 2005
- January-December 2004
- January-December 2003
- January-December 2002
- January-December 2001
- January-December 2000
- January-December 1999