Interview of March 2025: Chinese AI, AI for Cars,
Chinese chips
Q1 What kind of transformation will artificial
intelligence bring to global transportation? More and more automotive companies
are integrating with AI; what are your thoughts on this?
The car will basically become
like a train. Trains are already robots, but with the advantage that they run
from a station to another station and only on railway tracks. Cars can go from
anywhere to anywhere, and they have to deal with pedestrians and bicyclists. When
AI becomes good enough to solve all the problems of the road, the car will be a
robot like a train. Right now the impact of AI is simply that improves the
safety of the driver, but it actually increases the cost because you have to
pay extra for Tesla’s autopilot. But at some point the autopilot feature will
become standard, just like the radio and the A/C became standard in every car.
Then the fully autonomous self-driving car will become commonplace, and then it
will change the entire economy because many of us will decide that we don’t
need to buy a car anymore. You can just call the nearest self-driving car. No
need to pay 30-40 thousand dollars for a car that you keep in your garage. Just
call the self-driving car when you need it. When Uber
and Lyft came out, they told us the same thing: why
buy a car if you can just call Uber or Didi? But people still prefer to drive their own car
because they don’t see a big difference between a Uber car driven by a person and their own car driven by
themselves. It’s still a car driven by a person. A robotaxi
is a fundamentally different experience. It’s a service on demand that doesn’t
involve a human. It’s like when you pay to watch a video at home instead of
going to the movie theater. This will happen slowly but it will transform not
only transportation but the entire economy. And maybe it won’t be for
everybody, just like there are still many people who prefer to watch a movie at
the theater. I suspect that cost will decrease and safety will increase, and
then it will be hard to justify why you really have to drive your own car
instead of a robotaxi.
Q2 What is your ultimate vision for the integration of
artificial intelligence and the automotive industry? Many people refer to
artificial intelligence as the "Fourth Industrial Revolution" - what
capabilities do you think companies must possess today to keep up with this
technological transformation?
Companies obviously need to
think of cars as software, not just hardware, and the winners will probably be
those who integrate vertically: make the chips, make the AI software, make the
cars, make the communication satellites, and so on. That’s the Tesla model,
after all. And companies need to think of a future when people don’t buy cars
but use them only when they need them. When Google created Waymo,
it basically created this business plan: the car manufacturer becomes a taxi
company.
In terms of the hardware, AI
requires cameras, radars, lidars, sensors,
communication and of course thousands of chips. We think of a car as a body and
an engine, but clearly AI changes the definition of what a car is. It is a
system of sensors and actuators driven by computers. The traditional car is a
machine that controls itself, its interior, while the driver controls the environment
outside: the traffic light, the child playing on the sidewalk, the ice on the
road, and so on. The car of the future is a car that also has to control its
environment.
A big transformation will
take place in the infrastructure. At some point there will be a revolution in
the way roads are organized. There will be places where only self-driving cars
are allowed and these cars will communicate to each other their position and
their speed. So the cars will be allowed to avoid each other and minimize the
number of times that they stop. Therefore we won’t need traffic lights and
traffic signs. These things were invented to avoid that cars hit each other and
to make sure that everybody gets a chance at driving through a busy
intersection, and safely. But traffic lights and traffic signs are not needed
when the cars can talk to each other. Self-driving cars that communicate with
other cars don’t even need to drive on one side of the road. They can drive to
the right or to the left. They talk to each other, they see each other, they can avoid each other. The lanes may disappear. Of
course this can happen only in the places where human drivers are not allowed.
The moment you have one human driver, then you need a traffic light, and a stop
sign, and a speed limit, and the police to catch those who disobey, and so on.
The temptation to create zones where only self-driving cars are admitted will
be very strong.
Q3 Globally, it is primarily China and the United States
that are leading in AI and new energy vehicles. Can it be understood that in
the future, the competition in the AI automotive sector will be between Chinese
and American companies?
No, of
course no. The German and Japanese
car manufacturers have the technology and the money to compete. The first car
with Level 3 automation was an Audi in 2019. Mercedes just introduced a Level 3
car in the USA, ahead of Tesla which is still at Level 2. Many innovations of
AI originally came from Europe and Canada. Geoffrey Hinton is British and Yann LeCun is French. There are
many countries that have top AI scientists.
In fact, I think that DeepSeek has opened opportunities for countries that
normally don’t compete in car manufacturing. DeepSeek
showed that there is a path to cheap AI. I can see a day when the intelligent
platform will be cheap enough that any car manufacturer can license it, just
like one can license Windows for a laptop or Android for a smartphone.
Windows and Android have enabled many more companies to make laptops and smartphones. So there could actually be many more players
in the field of self-driving cars. Not now, but in the near future.
Q4A: What about Chinese AI?
The last four months have been the season of the Chinese AI. Alibaba's Qwen has become the
favorite open-source model both at Stanford and at Berkeley; and DeepSeek has shaken the confidence that Silicon Valley's AI
was way ahead of China's AI. DeepSeek has integrated
three technologies that i have been recommending for
years: Chain of Thought, Reinforcement Learning, Model
Distillation. All these Chinese models are an important
steps towards sustainable AI, AI that doesn't require billions of dollars to
train a model. DeepSeek was also the first company in
the world to create a model that is all three things in one: a chatbot, a reasoning model, and a "deep research"
system. And there are other Chinese startups that climbed the charts of best AI
models: 01.AI with Yi (2024), Zhipu AI with GLM
(2024), Stepfun, etc. I am also happy to see that the
Chinese companies finally understand the importance of open source, another
thing that I have been preaching for many years.
The restrictions on US exports of high-performance chips was probably good for
Chinese companies because it forced them to focus on sustainable AI, and so now
they have leapfrogged ahead of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and Meta. The most sustainable AI is made
in China, not in Silicon Valley. That's the big news of 2025. Silicon Valley is
still stuck with the idea that you need to scale up in order to get more
intelligence. It’s the Elon Musk model. China’s
sustainable AI is closer to my vision of AI.
Q4B: What about AI in the mobility
sector?
China's electric cars are probably the best in the world right now, especially
if considering the price. China has already surpassed the USA and Europe in
sales of electric vehicles. The advantage that Tesla still has is in the
software, not the car itself. Tesla is a software company before it is a car
manufacturer. That's where Tesla still beats Chinese electric cars. However,
the Chinese car manufacturers can now take advantage of their own native AI
models.
For example, Geely is known in the West because it
owns Volvo and Lotus, but it is actually also an AI company. It developed its
own Xingrui model and it was the first car
manufacturer to integrate its model with DeepSeek-R1.
Geely partnered with a new AI startup, Stepfun, to develop two open-source multimodal models:
Step-Video-T2V for video generation and Step-Audio for voice interaction.
Most car manufacturers are
still using Nvidia’s Orin chips. Thor is four times
more powerful than Orin. The first car that used Thor was the Lync 900, and Lync is a
subsidiary of Geely.
At the recent CES2025 in Las Vegas, Geely announced
an AI platform based on Xingrui + R1 and now they
announced that their platform Qianli Haohan is powered by dual Thor chips. This new platform
comes in five levels of intelligent driving solutions: H1, H3, H5, H7, and H9.
And H9 is Level 3 automation, the first platform ready for mass production.
I would take them very
seriously. Just like DeepSeek was the first serious
threat to OpenAI's dominance in LLMs, Geely could be the first serious threat to Tesla's
dominance in AI for mobility.
As far as i know, Geely is
also the only car manufacturer besides Tesla that boasts its own satellite
technology. Geely's subsidiary Geespace
(the equivalent of SpaceX) launched its first
low-orbit satellites for autonomous cars already in 2022. These
satellite constellation can be accurate to within a centimeter. SpaceX's Starlink constellation
has a lot more satellites in orbit (almost seven thousand) but we have learned
that the Chinese can catch up quickly. In 2022, Geely
also acquired control of Meizu, a smartphone
maker, so they will be able to develop cars with smartphone
features before Tesla.
Incidentally, these leaders in the AI field are all based in Hangzhou, located
one hour from Shanghai: Alibaba, DeepSeek
and Geely. The same city has Zhejiang University,
which has a record of innovation in AI and Robotics, and Hangzhou was also home
to pioneers of bitcoin mining. I am following closely
the developments in Hangzhou. A very interesting hub of
high-tech.
Q4C: What about automotive chips?
Batteries were the foundation
for the first phase of electric car development, giving BYD a big advantage,
but now chips are the foundation for the second phase of electric car
development.
In the USA that market is
still dominated by chip companies like Nvidia and
Qualcomm, and only Tesla (and partially General Motors) are
making their own chips. China is way ahead in creating competition for car
chips. In fact, China’s electric car race is also becoming a race about chips.
Traditionally, Chinese car makers relied on US chips like Nvidia
and Qualcomm, but there was a tidal wave of Chinese car chip makers, following
the trade war with the USA. China now has more than 300 chipmakers specialized
in cars. For example, SiEngine (originally formed in
2018 as a joint venture between ARM, the great British designer of chips, and
ECARX, de facto a subsidiary of car manufacturer Geely),
made China's first 7nm car chip in 2024, the "Longying
No. 1". SemiDrive made the first car chip to be
certified in Europe in 2018. And there are many other car chip makers in China.
The reference point is Tesla, that started making its own chips in 2019. Tesla’s top
AI chips are: the Full Self-Driving chip and the Dojo D1 chip, which are both 7
nm technology.
But the Chinese are catching
up.
A few months ago another
Chinese electric car manufacturer, Nio, announced the
first automotive chip based on 5-nanometer technology, and Xpeng’s
Turing AI chip has been widely publicized (although they didn't disclose the nm
generation) and soon SiEngine (de facto a subsidiary
of Geely) will introduce its own 7nm chip, StarLight or Xingchen-1 or AD1000.
Q6 I'm curious how Silicon Valley views
China's Deepseek and the AI technological innovations
by Chinese companies that you just mentioned?
Silicon Valley was shocked
when DeepSeek’s R1 came out. But there is general
satisfaction that DeepSeek has achieved something important
for everybody. It proved that sustainable AI is possible. We are also pleased
that all these new great Chinese models are open source. So in the end it helps
international collaboration. Of course, some companies, like OpenAI, are not happy because it hurts their business
model, but the community in general sees this as a very positive development.
Q7 Regarding technological ethics and social values, you
have repeatedly warned about "humans becoming dumber due to
technology." How can we avoid the alienation of human nature in the
process of intelligence development? Do you have any related warnings in the
field of transportation?
It’s the story of any new
technology. Humans lose some skills when a technology does the work for them. A
thousand years ago, when very few people knew how to read and write, and there
were very few books, it was normal to memorize a long poem. Now it’s difficult
to memorize even ten lines. My generation was able to drive anywhere without a smartphone. The new generation needs a smartphone
or doesn’t know where to go. In the future people won’t even need to know how
to drive a car because the car will be self-driving. Some of these skills will probably never needed
again, but personally I think it’s useful to keep them. So I personally go
hiking on mountains where there is no signal and only my orientation skills can
help me. I still calculate with paper and pen and often try to calculate
without writing. It’s good mental exercise. You never know when these skills
can become useful again.