Covid-19: How did east Asia contain it?
(as of May 2020)
We doubt the numbers coming out of China, but we do trust the numbers
coming out of Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Japan.
There is no question that east Asia did a better job than the West in containing
covid-19.
I have seen these explanations, and you can pick your favorite:
- These countries had the experience of SARS (and MERS in Korea).
Singapore, for example, that lost 33 people out of 238 SARS cases in in 2003, has quarantine facilities in its hospitals and a dedicated center for infectious diseases. For the same reason, Taiwan and South Korea reacted promptly even before it was clear what this new pneumonia was.
-
Generally speaking, east Asia took it seriously when the Western countries (notably the US president) were fiddling.
Singapore deployed mass surveillance to contains the epidemic,
South Korea invested in mass testing.
-
These are culturally hyper-hygienic cultures. They don't walk into their
house with outside shoes. The Japanese even change shoes to enter the bathroom.
They are happy to wear face masks even when there is no major reason to do so,
and, who knows, it may turn out that
wearing face masks is the most important thing to prevent contagion.
Chinese and Japanese rarely shake hands and never kiss or hug as a greeting,
not even between family members.
And, yes, they wash their hands frequently.
- It could also be that the original, Asian version of the virus mutated into something a lot more dangerous when it reached Europe (just like the Spanish became a lot more lethal in Europe than it was at the origin in the USA).
See One virus or two?.
Or that east Asian populations were exposed to a previous mutation,
a milder version of covid, that conferred herd immunity on those populations
even to the more virulent strain that started killing in January 2020.
(Incidentally, Japan did fairly well when covid infections were coming only
from China but no so well when covid infections started coming from Europe).
- There could also be something that makes their immune system stronger. A study by Gonzalo Otazu at the New York Institute of Technology shows that, whether coincidence or not, countries like Japan with mandatory policies to vaccinate against tuberculosis with the bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine register fewer covid-19 deaths than the other countries.
Of course, when people think of South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore, they
think of rich and well-organized countries. But Vietnam too has a success story,
and Vietnam is not rich. Vietnam has the "right" combination though:
experience dealing with the 2003 SARS and 2009 H1N1 pandemics,
early organized nationwide action already in January,
and a totalitarian regime that can impose restrictions on people's movements.
The low infection and date rates of countries like Thailand (58 deaths), Myanmar, Vietnam (zero deaths), Cambodia and Laos (all located near China's province Yunnan) raised the prospect that the population of Southeast Asia may already be "vaccinated" against covid-19, which would imply that a similar pandemic occurred centuries ago and left them the antibodies. The province of Yunnan, where the covid bats are supposed to originate, had fewer than 190 cases total and no deaths. Is it possible that its inhabitants have adapted to the viruses of its bats?
Peter Daszak, head of EcoHealth Alliance, is one of the scientists who suspects this is the case.
Useful articles:
See also:
Back to FAQ/ Q&A about Covid-19,
Data on Covid-19 and selected sources,
Covid-19: How it may change the World,
The Clown & the Virus,
The Clown & the Virus - Part 2,
Trump's Virus,
Sinophobia & Covid-19,
Sinophobia & Covid-19 in US Media,
Was covid-19 made in the USA? in China?
TM, ®, Copyright © 2020 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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