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Editorial correspondence | Back to Politics | Back to the world news
TM, ®, Copyright © 2005 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.

An open letter to Iran's president Ahmadinejad
Why Libya now
Who is bluffing
Iran vs Europe
2005 articles

  • (October 2006) An open letter to Iran's president Ahmadinejad. Dear President,
    Muslim armies are occupying the homelands of four great religions. Muslims are occupying the homeland of Christianity, from Betlehem to Jerusalem, that is now under the rule of a Palestinian "state" (run by your allies of Hamas) that no Islamic empire or kingdom in history ever recognized, an invention of the Western colonial powers.
    Muslims are occupying the homeland of Judaism, namely ancient Jewish villages such as Jericho, that are now under control by the same fictitious state.
    Muslims are occupying the homeland of Induism, namely the Indus Valley that is now part of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
    Muslims like you are occupying the homeland of Mazdaism (Zoroastrianism), Iran, an ancient and glorious civilization that was destroyed by the invasion of the barbarians from the Arabian peninsula.
    In these regions Christians, Jews, Indus and Zoroastrians have been exterminated and/or expelled by Muslims. There are very few non-Muslims left in the regions that Muslims have invaded.
    Dear President,
    Islam is a religion that was founded on blood. Mohammed is the only founder of a major religion who personally killed innocents. His immediate followers, the caliphs, killed millions of people and killed even each other in order to force Islam on a large region of the world, from Morocco to Indonesia.
    Dear President,
    Mecca was a model of religious tolerance before Mohammed: all religions of the world were worshipped in Mecca. Mohammed destroyed all the "idols" that he did not like, and turned Mecca into the symbol of religious intolerance. Mohammed invented religious war, that had never existed before. Islam was violent from the first day. After the demise of Nazism and Communism, Islam has remained the most violent ideology that terrorizes the world today. Some Muslims routinely threaten to kill anybody who dares disagree with them, and then claim that this is done in the name of defending the reputation of Islam as a peaceful religion. The other Muslims rarely condemn this "extremists" and regimes like yours even encourage them. So we have to assume that all Muslims agree with the "extremists".
    Islam is the only religion in the world that prescribes death for anyone who converts to another religion.
    Dear President,
    The world is at peace, except for the Islamic world. For the first time in the history of the world the world powers are at peace. There are no wars in Europe, for the first time in 1,500 years. There is no war between the USA, Russia, China, India, Japan, Europe: the powers are at peace for the first time since human civilization exists. All the wars in Latin America, Asia and black Africa have come to end or are coming to an end. There is only one region of the world where war is rampant: the region occupied by Islam. Today we have only one enemy of peace: Islam. Wherever there are Muslims, there is war, from Spain to the Philippines, from Russia to Somalia. There is no community of Muslims that is at peace with its neighbors.
    Dear President,
    Islam has made the people ruled by it violent, poor, slaves and ignorant. There has been no worse disease that has hurt the people of the Islamic countries than their own religion.
    Dear President,
    The Quran is largely a manual of war that encourages hatred among people. Muslims hate each other to an extent that has been rarely matched in the history of the other nations of the world. And they hate non-Muslims in a way that only Christianity has ever done (in its darkest days).
    Dear President,
    We ask for your help in establishing peace on the world. This can be achieved by fighting Islam wherever it has taken hold.
    We ask for your help in restoring Mecca as it was in the time before Mohammed: a model of religious tolerance, where all religions can be worshipped.
    We ask for your help in restoring Iran as the glorious civilization that it was in the time before Mohammed.
    We ask for your help in liberating the holy lands of the Hindus, Christians and Jews from the Muslim occupation.
    We ask for your help in fighting against monotheism, that today is the cause of most evils in the world.
    Dear President,
    We ask you to tell the world the truth: that Mohammed was not a prophet and that the Quran is not a divine book.
    You will be remembered as the man who destroyed the ideology of hatred and finally brought peace to the entire planet.
    The human race
    TM, ®, Copyright © 2005 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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  • (May 2006) Who is bluffing. Several analysts still believe that Iran is bluffing, despite the fact that it keeps a defiant attitude towards the USA, Europe and the United Nations. In fact, it increases the provocation every month.
    Wishful thinkers claim that Iran has nothing to gain from building a nuclear weapon: it would simply force its neighbors to go nuclear too. But Iran knows that a nuclear arms race in the most troublesome region of the world is precisely what the USA does not want. It is highly unlikely that the USA would help in any fashion countries such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq or even Turkey to get their own nuclear weapon.
    Wishful thinkers suspect that Israel is ready to strike and that it is just a matter of months before it loses its patience with the failed international pressures. But Iran knows that a preemptive strike by Israel or the USA would simply unite the Iranian people around its regime. Iran knows that the USA does not want this. The USA has been counting on people rebelling against the regime. The last thing the USA wants is a military confrontation that would unite the Iranians instead of dividing them.
    Pessimists fear that Iran would retaliate against sanctions by supporting terrorism against Western targets. If Al Qaeda is indeed blowing up shiites in Iraq, could shiite Iran really ally with it? Very unlikely.
    When the USA invaded Iraq, the perception was that the USA was surrounding Iran, and the Iranian regime was bound to collapse. Instead, three years later, Iran is sitting comfortably between two USA disasters: Afghanistan and Iraq. Precisely because the USA is losing in both countries, Iran knows that the USA does not have the capability or, for that matter, the will to start a third front in the region (and a third front that looks much harder than the previous two). There is literally nothing the USA can do militarily without getting itself into even bigger trouble.
    Iran has virtually only one vulnerable spots: the Kurds. Iran, like Iraq, has a Kurdish minority that wants independence. The USA has refrained from sponsoring their liberation war for fear of alienating Turkey (that shares the same problem). But that would be an obvious way to destabilize Iran.
    Barring that dramatic change in USA policy, the truth is that very little is likely to change: Iran will pursue its nuclear program and the rest of the world will get very angry, but doesn't seem to have a way to stop it, just like it couldn't stop Pakistan and India.
    Iran itself is unlikely to listen to any talk of moderation. Iran is neither stupid not suicidal. Iran knows that every crisis involving itself pushes the price of oil up, which means that Iran makes more money, which means that Iran becomes more influential worldwide, while USA voters become angrier and angrier at Bush because gasoline prices go up. Since the USA is the main customer of Iran's main resource, Iran knows that it is in a win-win situation. The USA is hanging itself with its own rope (oil). Iran is not suicidal. The USA is.
    TM, ®, Copyright © 2005 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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  • (January 2006) Iran vs Europe. The three (self-appointed) western European powers (Germany, France and Britain) have decided to take action against Iran, after Iran refused to stop its nuclear program. Iran is still claiming that its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes, but almost everybody (from its Arab neighbors to the USA) believes that Iran wants to become a nuclear power.
    Europe is unusually sensitive to this issue. Most Europeans were perfectly happy to have dictators like Qaddafi, Saddam and Assad in power, and were very upset when George W Bush embarked on a mission to remove or neutralize them. Now they seem eager to take the initiative in neutralizing Iran. There is certainly a feeling that Europe is falling behind the USA on the international scene, and a country like France, that lost badly in Iraq, certainly wants to join the winners now. But there is more than hurt pride.
    History teaches us that the country with the best weapons, the most resources and the largest population ends up, sooner or later, ruling its region. So far it has been inevitable. It turns out that Iran has the largest population and the largest oil reserves in the region stretching from Afghanistan to Portugal. As long as its army is vastly inferior to the armies of its Middle Eastern and European neighbords, Iran cannot truly claim to be a regional superpower. But Iran would certainly become a regional superpower if it had the people, the resources and the weapons.
    There are only three ways that Europe can defend its supremacy in the region: exterminate the people (a trick that worked wonders in ancient times, but has become unpopular), steal the resources (another old trick that worked wonders in colonial times) or disarm the regime. Given the first two are no longer feasible, there is only one left: disarm the regime. Thus the frenzy and fury with which the Europeans are trying to stop Iran from going nuclear. The Europeans are fighting for their own survival as powers.
    Unfortunately, Iran is unlikely to accept any kind of negotiation. The fact that it refuses to bargain is that... it has no intention of bargaining. Here lies the big difference between Iran and North Korea. As mad as its dictator Kim Jong Il might be, there is no way that North Korea can dream of becoming a regional superpower: it is surrounded by China, Russia and Japan. North Korea cannot have any ambition of influencing China, Russia or Japan. It can only bargain with them, and try to get the best bargain. Iran is different: it is surrounded by weak states, with either smaller populations, fewer resources or weaker arms or all three. The temptation to harbor imperial ambitions must be strong. Historically, it did use to have its own empire on the region (more than once). Since Khomeini's revolution, Iran has also come to see itself as a world missionary, who goal is to export the Islamic revolution (so far it failed). Thus the situation is completely different: North Korea can only bargain, whereas Iran can and does have imperial dreams.
    Far from being mere Mussolinis in search of an elusive dream of empire, the Iranian regime is also motivated by very practical reasons. First of all, the countries that today want a weak Iran are the countries that supported a coup in 1953 against the Iranian regime, and then installed a puppet dictator who ruled for two decades. Thus Iran knows that the USA and the UK are capable of interfering into its affairs. Second, Iran was indeed invaded by one of its neighbors (Saddam Hussein's Iraq), and, again, with the complicity of the western powers. Third, two of its neighbors (Pakistan and Israel) have become nuclear powers (and have never been punished by anyone). Last but not least, it is now almost completely surrounded by the USA: the USA or its allies are in power in Afghanistan, in Kuwait, in Iraq, in Georgia, in Armenia and in Turkey. The Iranian regime is entitled to be worried. Even a democratic Iran would probably feel that it needs to defend itself with a better military option that it has today (today it basically only has people to counter a foreign attack).
    Thus this crisis is unlikely to go away any time soon. The Europeans are likely to do anything they can to weaken a prospective superpower, and Iran is likely to do anything it can to get its nuclear weapon.
    Israel might solve the problem in the fastest way. After all, Iran's president just gave it a good excuse to attack first. See What side is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on?
    TM, ®, Copyright © 2005 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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  • 2005 articles
Editorial correspondence | Back to the top | Back to Politics | Back to the world news