Intelligence is not Artificial

Why the Singularity is not Coming any Time Soon And Other Meditations on the Post-Human Condition and the Future of Intelligence

by piero scaruffi
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(These are excerpts from my book "Intelligence is not Artificial")

Can you hear me?

A brief summary of the field of speech recognition can serve to explain the infinite number of practical problems that must be solved in order to have a machine simply understand the words that i am saying (never mind the meaning of those words, just the words). A vast gulf separates popular books on the Singularity from the mundane daily research carried out at A.I. laboratories, where scientists work on narrow specialized technical details. The history of speech recognition goes back at least to 1961, when IBM researchers developed the "Shoebox", a device that recognized spoken digits (0 to 9) and a handful of spoken words. In 1963 NEC of Japan developed a similar digit recognizer. Tom Martin at the RCA Laboratories was probably the first who applied neural networks to speech recognition ("Speech Recognition by Feature Abstraction Techniques", 1964). In 1970 Martin founded Threshold Technology in New Jersey which developed the first commercial speech-recognition product, the VIP-100. Speech analysis became a viable technology thanks to conceptual innovations in Russia and Japan. In 1966 Fumitada Itakura at NTT in Tokyo invented Linear Predictive Coding ("One Consideration on Optimal Discrimination or Classification of Speech", 1966), a technique that 40 years later would be still used for voice compression in the GSM protocol for cellular phones; and Taras Vintsiuk at the Institute of Cybernetics in Kiev invented Dynamic Time Warping ("Speech Discrimination by Dynamic Programming", 1968), utilizing dynamic programming (a mathematical technique invented by Richard Bellman at RAND in 1953) to recognize words spoken at different speeds. Dynamic Time Warping was refined in 1970 by Hiroaki Sakoe and Seibi Chiba at NEC in Japan. Meanwhile, in 1969 Raj Reddy founded the speech-recognition group at Carnegie Mellon University and supervised three important projects: Harpy (Bruce Lowerre 1976), that used a finite-state network to reduce the computational complexity; Hearsay-II, that pioneered the "blackboard" in which knowledge acquired by parallel asynchronous processes gets integrated to produce higher levels of hypothesis (Rick Hayes-Roth, Lee Erman, Victor Lesser and Richard Fennell, 1975); and Dragon (Jim Baker, 1975), who moved to Massachusetts to start a pioneering company with the same name in 1982. Dragon differed from Hearsay in the way it represented knowledge: Hearsay used the logical approach of the "expert system" school, whereas Dragon used the hidden Markov model. The same idea was central to Fred Jelinek's efforts at IBM ("Continuous Speech Recognition by Statistical Methods", 1976) and statistical methods based on the Hidden Markov Model for speech processing became popular with Jack Ferguson's "The Blue Book", which was the outcome of his lectures at the Institute for Defense Analyses in 1980. IBM (Jelinek's group) and the Bell Labs (Lawrence Rabiner's group) came to represent two different schools of thought: IBM was looking for the individual speech-recognition system, that would be trained to recognize one specific voice; Bell Labs wanted a system that would understand a word pronounced by any one among the millions of AT&T's phone users. IBM studied the language model, whereas Bell Labs studied the acoustic model. IBM's technology (the n-gram model) tried to optimize the recognition task by predicting statistically the next word. The inspiration for the IBM technique came from a word game devised by Claude Shannon in his book "A Mathematical Theory of Communication" (1948). Program this technique into a computer, and test it on your friends, and you have the Shannon equivalent of the Turing Test: ask both the computer and your friends to guess the next word in an arbitrary sentence. If the span of words is 1 or 2, your friends easily win. But if the span of words is 3 or higher, the computer starts winning. Shannon's game was the first hint that perhaps understanding the meaning of the speech was irrelevant, and instead the frequency of each word and of its coexistence with other words was crucial. Baum's Hidden Markov Model applied to speech recognition becomes a probability measure which integrates both schools because it can represent both the variability of speech sound and the structure of spoken language. The Bell Labs approach eventually led to Biing-Hwang Juang's "mixture-density hidden Markov models" for speaker independent recognition and a large vocabulary ("Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Mixture Multivariate Stochastic Observations of Markov Chains," 1985). Hidden Markov Models became the backbone of the systems of the 1980s: Kai-Fu Lee's speaker-independent system Sphinx at Carnegie Mellon University (the most successful system yet for a large vocabulary and continuous speech); the Byblos system from BBN (1989); and the Decipher system from SRI (1989). Three projects further accelerated progress in speech recognition. In 1989 Steve Young at Cambridge University developed the Hidden Markov Model Tool Kit, which soon became the most popular tool to build speech-recognition software. In 1991 Douglas Paul of the MIT, in collaboration with Dragon Systems, unveiled the Continuous Speech Recognition (CSR) Corpus, a dataset containing thousands of spoken articles, mostly from the Wall Street Journal. Finally, in 1989 DARPA sponsored projects to develop speech recognition for air travel (the Air Travel Information Service or ATIS) with participants such as BBN, MIT, CMU, AT&T, SRI, etc. The program ended in 1994 when the yearly benchmark test showed that the error rate had dropped to human levels. These projects, largely based on Juang's algorithm of 1985, left behind another huge corpus of utterances. The following decade witnessed the first serious conversational agents: in 2000 Victor Zue at the MIT demonstrated Pegasus for airline flights status and Jupiter for weather status/forecast, and also in 2000 Al Gorin at AT&T developed How May I Help You (HMIHY) for telephone customer care. More importantly, the leader of the ATIS project at SRI, Michael Cohen, founded Nuance in 1994 that developed the system licensed by Siri to make the 2010 app for the Apple iPhone (and Cohen was hired by Google in 2004).

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